China must not go unchallenged in the Indo-Pacific

In late July, China conducted a substantial exercise in the West Philippine Sea to challenge the Philippines’ determination to defend its territory. Conducted near Scarborough Shoal, within Manila’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zone, it was the latest in a series of acts meant to challenge the rules-based order. Left unchecked, they pose a significant danger to regional security.

China’s aggression affects Filipinos directly. It is therefore unsurprising that a July Pew Research Center survey found 76 percent of Filipinos regard China as the greatest threat to national security.

Freedom of navigation is fundamental to a free and open Indo-Pacific where no single power dominates. China’s bid to erode the status quo must not go unanswered.

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This year commemorates 10 years since a tribunal in The Hague rejected Beijing’s broad claims and upheld Philippine sovereign rights in waters within China’s so-called nine-dash line.

Merely amplifying the award or voicing concern over Taiwan and Philippine territory draws sharp criticisms from Beijing. China has gone so far as to sanction Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. for statements Beijing alleged undermined its “legitimate interests.”

The United States, Japan, and key European states have backed the award. Yet China’s strategic intentions remain unchanged. It still targets those who oppose its coercion.

Japan, one of Manila’s most important partners, has also faced persistent Chinese pressure after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed support regarding Taiwan and Tokyo’s long-standing commitment to the free and open Indo-Pacific vision.

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Japan is central to the region’s future, especially as its alliance with the US grows. Tokyo does more than warn of Beijing’s aims. It is raising defense spending, building joint skills through drills, and sharing critical intelligence and equipment with its closest allies.

Japan’s objectives align perfectly with those of the Philippines. Manila will benefit substantially from the accelerated transfer of Abukuma-class destroyer escorts and TC-90 aircraft, Japan’s strong sea watch systems, and potential acquisition of Japanese defense assets enabled by Tokyo’s export reforms.

Both states have also established strong legal and operational foundations through the Reciprocal Access Agreement and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, while steadily expanding maritime cooperative activities.

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These significant advances reflect Japan’s steadfast approach and Defense Minister Shinjirō Koizumi’s unambiguous support for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Like Teodoro, Koizumi has called today’s security setting the most severe since World War II.

The Philippines and Japan must intensify their cooperation, including with the US. Regional stability requires sustained American engagement.

It is against this backdrop that Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby is expected to visit the Philippines. His visit offers a clear demonstration of Washington’s sustained determination to reaffirm its ironclad commitment to the Philippines at a consequential moment for the alliance. As the principal adviser to the US secretary of war on defense and foreign policy, Colby oversees the national defense strategy, force posture, planning, and alliance priorities.

The growing Philippines-US-Japan partnership is grounded in a shared understanding of threats now and ahead. Only stronger ties can keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.

China’s unusual ballistic missile launch in the southern Pacific in early July also seemed timed to display its power. It was a warning not only to Washington but to states in the region, including the Philippines.

Despite renewed conflict in the Gulf, Washington subsequently deployed coast guard vessels to the region, including forces operating in the Philippines. Combined with deeper regional cooperation and Balikatan 2026, the largest edition yet, this represented another show of collective strength.

One of the Philippines’ most effective instruments in this harsh security setting is its network of reliable strategic partnerships. The US, Japan, and other allies support enduring security and shared prosperity, not force, fear, or a bid to rule.

The urgent challenge is to turn strong statements, diplomatic visits, agreements, and exercises into a credible strategic balance that further deters Chinese aggression and keeps the region’s seas open to all.

By strengthening deterrence and upholding international law, the Philippines and its like-minded partners can help build a more secure, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

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Dindo Manhit is the founder and CEO of Stratbase Group.