Brent rose 1.4% to $83.65 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East and a lack of clarity on a deal to reopen the crucial waterway lifted the commodity. Oil has climbed over 37% this year.
Treasury futures inched lower in early Asian trading as higher energy prices revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated. In the cash market, the Treasury 10-year yield held at 4.68%, after climbing seven basis points during the US session. Government bonds in Australia also fell, sending the yields on the 10-year higher by eight basis points.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar’s strength was little changed after posting its biggest gain in two weeks during the New York session. Asian stocks swung between minor gains and losses.
A lack of a deal in the Middle East risks keeping energy prices higher, adding to a market already volatile on the artificial intelligence trade. Attention now turns to Friday’s US employment report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A stronger-than-expected payrolls reading would reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates.
“Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Chief Investment Office.
Separately, Fars news agency said Iranian naval forces had struck “hostile targets” at the entrance to the strait.
“Wall Street is reversing again from sharp recent gains, as a lack of clarity over the Strait of Hormuz has investors questioning whether the strong rally at the start of the week was justified by perceived improvements in geopolitical negotiations,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
US economic data released Thursday highlighted the resilience of the US labor market, leaving inflation as the key variable for the Fed’s September meeting. Initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week, while a separate report showed labor productivity accelerated by more than expected in the second quarter as companies worked to offset higher costs.
Traders now turn their attention to Friday’s payrolls report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect employers added 80,000 jobs in July, following a weaker-than-expected gain of 57,000 in June. The report is expected to provide the clearest signal yet on whether the labor market is cooling enough to support expectations for Fed easing later this year.
“Friday’s jobs report is of greater importance for markets given how fast this stock market has rallied over the past week, and ultimately we will need to see a number that is not too hot and not too cold in order for the market to keep grinding higher,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
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