Parts of the south-western Western Cape recorded their driest July on record after an unusually persistent Atlantic high-pressure system diverted winter cold fronts away from the province, prompting renewed warnings over water security as a __strengthening El Niño __raises the possibility of a warmer summer.

According to the South African Weather Service, several severe weather systems brought widespread rainfall to parts of the Western Cape during May and early June, significantly boosting dam levels across much of the province.

But July saw a dramatic shift.

The south-western Cape, which receives most of its annual rainfall between June and August, was reached by only three weak cold fronts during the month after a blocking Atlantic high-pressure system steered most winter weather systems south of the province.

As a result, several weather stations recorded their driest July since observations began. Cape Town International Airport measured just 14.4mm of rain during July — only 16% of its long-term average and the lowest July total in its 68-year record. The previous record low was 18mm in 1987.

The SA Observatory recorded 15.6mm, its lowest July rainfall in 91 years, while Malmesbury (3.2mm), Kirstenbosch (65mm), Hermanus (12mm) and Paarl (27.6mm) also recorded their driest July’s on record.

The figures stand in stark contrast to July 2025, when several strong cold fronts delivered more than 100mm of rain to parts of the province.

“By contrast, July 2026 was the driest on record for many stations in the south-western Cape. As El Niño is expected to strengthen further over the coming months, the likelihood of a warmer-than-normal summer over the Western Cape is expected to rise,” the weather service said.

Given the uncertainty surrounding rainfall during the 2027 winter season, it urged the public to use water sparingly in the coming months.

Anja du Plessis, an associate professor and water management expert at Unisa, said the Western Cape entered the winter rainfall season after a relatively dry period, before exceptional storms in May and early June significantly replenished dams across much of the province. Since then, however, rainfall has declined sharply again. 

“Those storms helped improve water storage across much of the province but after that the rainfall dropped off significantly again," she said.

Du Plessis said the weather pattern suggested cold fronts were tracking further south than usual, allowing more rain to reach parts of the Eastern Cape while much of the south-western Cape remained unusually dry.

She said authorities should begin implementing contingency measures now rather than waiting for water supplies to come under pressure.

“We don’t want another Day Zero," she said. “The province should not wait until it's forced into emergency measures. It should encourage water conservation, consider restrictions if necessary and promote water-wise behaviour sooner rather than later, especially with El Niño expected to strengthen."

She said warmer-than-normal summer temperatures associated with El Niño could increase water demand while uncertainty over next winter's rainfall underscored the need to plan ahead.

“The combination creates a snowball effect. We’ve had below-average rainfall, we’re seeing another dry winter period now and warmer temperatures are expected over summer. That increases pressure on water resources, which is why contingency measures need to be implemented sooner rather than later.”

The record-dry July comes against the backdrop of long-term climate projections. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report said that climate models consistently project fewer cold fronts reaching the south-western Cape as Southern Hemisphere storm tracks shift poleward. 

While the report notes that there is only medium confidence that the region will become drier overall because of natural climate variability, it projects with high confidence that rising temperatures will increase drought risk.

Du Plessis said the recent weather pattern broadly reflected those long-term projections.

“It seems like the cold fronts are tracking further south than they usually do. Parts of the eastern side of the country are receiving more rainfall, while much of the Western Cape is missing out. That is broadly in line with what climate projections have been indicating.”