Track soft 6 and rail out 6m from 900m to 400m and true the remainder.
Race 1
5. Herr Fritz is an emerging three-year-old that can rebound from a poor debut at Muswellbrook, where he failed to run home from the back. Came through inferior inside going that day, but on a more reliable surface here and pushed out in trip, punters should see a different horse. Drawn to get cover early and just needs a clear shot at them over the final 400m. 1. Media Spin is a progressive local and clear threat from the inside draw. Placed in two from three this prep, the latest charging home all too late as a hot favourite at Warren. 3. Whispering Legend is a home-track mare by Flying Artie on debut behind two soft trials. 7. Bloomin’ Hell improving second-up is the best of the rest.How to play it: Herr Fritz to win.
Race 2
9. Tampa Bay is trained here and ready to peak third-up over more ground. Felt the pinch when resuming off a lengthy break in heavy going before being ridden quieter and hitting the line at Forbes off a freshen-up. Back at home now with a superior jockey on, she can finally break through, having been placed six times so far. 2. Finance Work is an ex-Victorian returning for a second prep and first outing for the new local stable. 6. The Last Romanov can improve sharply second-up with a significant jockey switch and gear changes in play. 10. Orchid Boy is a betting watch on debut behind three improving trials and is bred to thrive in soft.How to play it: Tampa Bay to win.
Race 3
4. Grande Diablo is an improver that can go back-to-back deep into the prep. Struggled on a wet track in a deeper race before making up late ground in a Class 1 at Muswellbrook. Then relished finally getting on to a firmer track at Gunnedah in similar class over a longer trip, powering home for a dominant win after being backed from $3.30 into $2.50. The top jockey sticks, and the drop back in journey is off-set with three weeks between runs. 1. Boncapo is the immediate threat, hard fit and having won two from four this campaign. Had plenty in hand winning a Clsss 1 at Warren three weeks ago. 2. Divine Conclusion comes off a fast-finishing BM 58 win at Forbes. 6. Ferrari Man, which has been racing in deeper fields, and 10. Green Pineapple, dropping back from a tougher provincial race, can both figure in the minor money.How to play it: Grande Diablo to win.
Race 4
7. Panta Rhei is a progressive mare primed to strike second-up over a bit further. Was beaten narrowly twice in handy Class 1 line-ups over the second half of last year before having a long spell, then returned with a gallant effort in front at Warren when only collared late. Fitter now and better placed ridden with a sit over this journey, and the leading jockey taking over from a handy trailing draw is a huge pointer. Best form is all on soft ground. 8. Imastatement is a talented home tracker returning for her first run since late summer. No public trials, but in good hands and can fire fresh. 3. Ensign Parker held his ground first-up at Scone and is over the odds in this field. 4. Frankie’s Shout is a local improver after finishing close-up when fresh at Gunnedah. 5. Torendosetta has won her last two at this course and level, but has to overcome a tough draw in a race with more depth. 12. Bees Knees is lightly raced and needs scratchings to get a run, but comes off a smart maiden win at Quirindi four weeks back.How to play it: Panta Rhei to win.
Race 5
3. Not Written Off is a smart and hard-fit mare hunting a third straight win well into the campaign. Drove home late to narrowly claim a BM 74 at Tamworth before even more impressive when sweeping home to win a BM 82. Given 24 days between runs, with the top jockey taking over, and the stable has been going great guns over the past month. Further boosted with two early rivals, including the talented stablemate, being preferred at Muswellbrook on Sunday. 1. Shaggy is a tough provincial sprinter that can mount a challenge fourth-up, despite drawing wide. 8. Crook is a handy home track-mare working towards another win. Was only a bit over three lengths from the winner in a metro BM 64 race and drawn to get the right trail here. Gap to the rest headed by 7. Fetes Des Meres, resuming off a solid trial.How to play it: Not Written Off to win.
Race 6
2. De Joker is lightly raced and well-placed fifth-up over 100m further. Bolted in his maiden by nearly seven lengths in heavy going three starts back before being ridden much quieter to charge home late into a place here over 1100m. Then again hit the line to miss narrowly against similar opposition over 1300m. Bursting to win again for an underrated Central West stable and drops 2.5kg for this. 1. Proper Twelve will probably jump clear favourite third-up for a leading country combination. Led until the final strides when resuming at Warren, and while this is a step-up, draws to find a nice trail back on his home circuit. ** 5. Sellicks Beach is a promising local that draws well hunting a second win at only his third start. 6. Jenni La Rock gets the inside barrier fourth-up; while 7. Vendor has hit the line nicely in his last couple.How to play it:** De Joker to win.
Race 7
5. Shamedy is a tough and consistent soft tracker suited third-up. Finished best to claim a BM 82 before being given a month-long freshen, then made up late ground from a mile back in the Maclean Cup at Grafton. Settles closer in the run here from a softer draw and he’s well suited to the long run home at this track. Boasts a great record with 10 wins and 12 placings from 39 starts. 1. Prince Of Sorts drew wide under a big weight third-up, but impressed when close up in a BM 68 at Wyong. 6. Hibiki Harmony did her best work late when resuming in a feature BM 87 at Muswellbrook. 10. Navy Steel can improve sharply second-up after being tailed off in a deeper metro race, while 11. Nomorenightshift is also in the mix after hitting the line in that same sprint as Hibiki Harmony when first-up for 22 weeks.How to play it: Shamedy to win.
Best bets
Race 3: 4. Grande Diablo
Race 4: 7. Panta Rhei
Best value
Race 7: 5. ShamedySupplied by Racing NSW