The cold streak for the MLB best home run bets came to a merciful end on Saturday. Bryce Harper launched a home run at +300 odds. Sadly, Kyle Schwarber didn’t hit a homer, and I was a day early, as he smashed two on Sunday. The end of the drought couldn’t have come at a better time, though.
Two losing bets would have evaporated the remainder of the season’s profits and brought the home run bets into the red. Instead, the season’s home run props have a 19-72 record, with three no-bets, generating $261 in profit for anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds.
Tonight’s 10-game MLB slate offers bettors ample home run props to choose from. Two left-handed-hitting outfielders in favorable matchups can build upon Saturday’s correct home run bet and be the start of a heater tonight, the best way to follow up on snapping a cold streak.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Wilyer Abreu (Boston Red Sox - OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+295) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wilyer Abreu is white-hot, hitting an MLB-high 10 home runs since July 10th. The 27-year-old outfielder has hit 20 homers this year, smashing 15 against righties, 10 on the road and seven on the road against righties.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder also has decent batted-ball data this year. Among 251 qualified batters in 2026, Abreu is tied for 25th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.9%), tied for 38th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.0%), tied for 91st in hard-hit rate (43.5%), tied for 98th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.7 mph), 50th in maximum exit velocity (113.1 mph), tied for 78th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.8%) and tied for 33rd in steepest launch angle (19.1 degrees).
Abreu has an ideal matchup to hit a home run tonight. Jameson Taillon’s 2.93 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the most among Monday’s probable starters. The 34-year-old righty has allowed 26 home runs in 16 starts this year, permitting at least one in 13 of his starts, including three straight. He has also coughed up multiple home runs in eight turns in 2026. Furthermore, Taillon has allowed 14 homers to left-handed batters this year.
Abreu’s odds to hit a homer are also enhanced by playing in Toronto tonight. Rogers Centre is tied for the 10th-highest park factor for home runs (111) since 2025. Abreu should rip another home run tonight.
Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics - OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+388) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler Soderstrom has drilled 19 home runs in 439 plate appearances this year after hitting a career-high 25 in 624 last season. The 24-year-old outfielder has hit 10 home runs against righties, 11 at home and five at home against right-handed pitching this season. Soderstrom has also popped five home runs in the second half, meaning he’s in good form.
His batted-ball data isn’t too shabby, either. Among 251 qualified hitters this year, Soderstrom is tied for 92nd in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.4%), 100th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (9.5%), 54th in hard-hit rate (46.3%), 66th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.7 mph) and tied for 48th in maximum exit velocity (113.2 mph).
Soderstrom has a desirable matchup against a struggling hurler tonight. Freddy Peralta has allowed 19 home runs at 1.46 HR/9 in 23 starts this year, permitting at least one homer in six of his last eight starts and 14 starts this season. Additionally, Peralta has yielded 15 home runs to left-handed batters, 12 on the road and 10 on the road to left-handed batters.
Finally, Sutter Health Park’s 120 park factor for homers ranks second since 2025. The conditions are outstanding for Soderstrom to crank a home run tonight.