China, India and Pakistan’s dangerous nuclear triangle just became more complicated

New Delhi faces a strategic headache from its main rival’s defensive pact with Turkey and the Saudis – but it may be better news for Beijing

Last week, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed a pact in Mecca in which they agreed to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all. The three governments have described it as defensive and not directed at any particular state.

Analysts said its main significance for India lay less in whether it would be invoked, but in how it could alter Pakistan’s strategic position as well as the balance between the three nuclear powers.

“The agreement institutionalises a trilateral framework combining Saudi capital, Turkish defence technology and Pakistan’s strategic geography,” according to Brahma Chellaney, a New Delhi-based strategic analyst.

“Regardless of whether such provisions are ever invoked [the pact’s] existence could nonetheless complicate India’s strategic calculus by introducing additional uncertainty into crisis planning and deterrence,” he wrote in a social media post.