The brutally hot summer is set to cost the EU economy €180 billion this year — that’s equivalent to roughly 1 percent of GDP, which is all the growth the bloc was expected to generate in 2026, according to new analysis.

France could lose 1.4 percentage points of growth, which is enough to push its economy into a 0.6 percent contraction, while an 0.8-point hit could almost wipe out the Netherlands’ expected expansion.

“The result is not simply ‘the hottest countries lose the most,'” notes the analysis by Triodos Bank. “Spain and Italy have the highest physical exposure and the most hot days in absolute terms, but decades of acclimatisation imply that the marginal effect of any single hot day is comparatively small.”