We seem to have avoided the Thucydides Trap. The inevitable conflict triggered by the insecurity in the world’s leading power created by the rise of a challenger has not yet materialized. Don’t get too comfortable, however, now, the talk is of World War III.

Last week, Politico’s National Security Daily warned that “connections between many of the world’s conflicts are multiplying” and “officials, analysts and investors are increasingly asking whether humanity is on the verge of World War III.”

My instinct upon reading that was to skip to the next item in that daily mailer. Conflicts are spreading and superpower confrontation is a possibility, but world war? Come on! Still, warning signs are flashing and it’s worth asking how close we are to a global conflict, and what it means to be slouching and sliding toward a wider, perhaps world, war.