In another key primary test, a favored progressive is upset in Wisconsin governor’s race

- Click here to listen to this article

• David Crowley edged Francesca Hong by just 3,000 votes. He could become Wisconsin’s first Black governor.
• Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan will face former TV sports reporter Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota Senate race.

WASHINGTON — In another major test of how far left Democratic voters in swing states are willing to go, moderate David Crowley narrowly defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong to become the Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin.

The surprise result in Tuesday’s primary — in a closely watched swing state seen as a possible bellwether of Democratic sentiment — came after polls had shown Hong leading the field by double digits. With 95% of the vote counted, Crowley clinched the nomination early Wednesday by just 3,000 votes.

It was the second purple-state race between Democrats in two weeks to have an extremely narrow result, following the slim win by progressive Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate primary last week. Polling also overestimated progressive performance in that race.

In the November general election, Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who was endorsed by President Trump. If Crowley were to defeat Tiffany, he would become the first Black governor in the state’s history.

The race had been closely watched as an example of the national fissure between progressive and establishment Democrats.

El-Sayed’s victory will put to the test in a swing state the broader strength of the progressive movement, which has found success in deep-blue places like New York City and Los Angeles.

“Hong’s candidacy is a sign of the broader trends in the party, with outspoken progressives and socialists emerging in some primaries and having real sway in the party,” said University of Wisconsin-Madison professor Barry Burden. “With Crowley, he has a more conciliatory approach ... that probably sits better with the average independent voter or moderate in the state who’s just looking to get some problems addressed.”

Crowley and his backers had undertaken an intense late-July sprint to persuade Democrats to coalesce around him. He suspended his campaign amid low poll numbers, then rejoined the race with less than a month before election day after establishment frontrunner Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out.

“It was fast and furious very late in the campaign to try to build a movement in the party behind Crowley as the establishment candidate who is presumably more likely to win in a general election,” Burden said.

In another upper Midwest contest highlighting the choices confronting Democratic voters, progressive Lt. Gov. Penny Flanagan defeated center-left Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan will face former television sports reporter Michele Tofoya, a Republican, in November for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who is retiring.

As Democrats grapple with creating a party identity that will draw swing voters away from President Trump’s Republican Party in November and in 2028, a fierce debate has taken hold between the party’s factions — progressives who argue their approach is the key to the party’s fresh path forward, and moderates who fear that a far-left presidential candidate could cost Democrats the presidency in 2028.

Progressive candidates so far have fared well in blue strongholds such as Denver, New York and Minnesota this cycle, but they have struggled in Missouri and Wisconsin.

“Democrats of all ilk are winning elections all across the country,” said strategist Hyma Moore on Wednesday on CBS News, “and it’s very specific to what that state or that district needs.”

Moore said Hong’s loss was not “a setback for progressives,” arguing that she was a weaker political candidate than Crowley regardless of her ideology.

In his victory remarks Wednesday morning, Crowley rejected the framing of an intra-party conflict.

“We may not agree on every policy, we may not use the same labels, but we all want safe communities, strong schools, affordable healthcare, good-paying jobs and a brighter future for all of our children,” Crowley said.

Hong, a member of the state Assembly, ran into controversy late in the campaign with resurfaced social media posts in which she called for defunding the police and shared her negative opinions on Thanksgiving. Although she sought to retract or revise many of those comments in televised interviews, moderates and centrists seized on these points to argue against her electability.

“She had a whole smorgasbord of positions that were perfectly designed to repel voters in the middle that Democrats have to win,” said Kate deGruyter of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, which is funneling money into an effort to discredit democratic socialism ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Progressive candidates for governor in Wisconsin and U.S. Senate in Minnesota are making their final pushes ahead of Tuesday’s election

The race remained exceedingly tight until early Wednesday, when the Associated Press projected Crowley as the winner. In counties where Crowley was expected to dominate, such as Milwaukee, Hong performed better than expected. While Hong won the city of Madison and areas with University of Wisconsin satellite campuses. the margin was too small to push her past Crowley, according to AP election data.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) chose to publicly back Hong, but she was unable to secure key national endorsements from the two most prominent progressives in Congress, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Hong told her supporters Tuesday night, hours before she conceded, that regardless of the result, progressive politics would have to be reckoned with in Wisconsin’s electoral future.

“We have built something that will change politics forever,” she said. “I am so deeply grateful, to my core, for how hard you have all fought, and for what this fight, our movement, means for all of Wisconsin.”

Times staff writer Justine McDaniel in Washington contributed to this report.