Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 10%

Galaxy cited unresolved ethics, stablecoin yield and developer protection issues, along with a narrow Senate window when lawmakers return in September.

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to 10%.

It warned that multiple political issues remain unresolved and the Senate will have only about two to three weeks to pass it when it reconvenes on Sept. 14.

Unless an initial motion to proceed vote occurs immediately upon lawmakers’ return to Washington, there would be enough time for the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate only if it “dominates basically the entire working session,” wrote Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, in a Friday X post.

Thorn added that lawmakers would still have to work through multiple issues, including ethics rules for government officials’ involvement in crypto and pressure from banks over stablecoin yield provisions.

Galaxy lowered its previous estimate from 60% to 50% on June 26, after cutting it from 75% to 60% on June 6. Its 75% estimate was set on May 22.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has faced criticism. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but most Democrats and the banking industry pushed back, arguing that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as banks.

At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the US Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto.

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