For readers trying to make sense of COVID-19 vaccine safety, a study reporting more than 3 million excess deaths across 47 countries from 2020 through 2022 would be hard to ignore. The article first appeared in BMJ Public Health in June of 2024, and according to BMJ’s later expression of concern, some reports soon presented it as evidence that vaccines had contributed to those deaths.

The study tracked deaths above expected levels during the pandemic. In June 2026, co-author Saskia Mostert defended the paper before a U.S. Senate subcommittee. Two months later, BMJ Public Health retracted it, saying the paper had not clearly explained the limited nature of its analysis.

“Overall, the journal concludes that the discussion of causes of mortality is imbalanced, lacks rigour, and includes misinformation,” BMJ officials wrote in the retraction notice.

What the COVID-19 Excess Mortality Study Measured

According to the original study, the researchers used all-cause mortality data available through Our World in Data for 47 countries in what they called the Western world. All-cause mortality includes every reported death, regardless of cause, while excess mortality describes deaths above the number normally expected during a given period.

For the expected baseline, the study used a model built from mortality records collected between 2015 and 2019. Using data from January 2020 through December 2022, the authors calculated 3,098,456 excess deaths. The highest annual total came in 2021, when they counted about 1.26 million excess deaths. The authors noted that the 2022 data were preliminary and incomplete.

The authors discussed COVID-19 infections, containment measures, and vaccination programs as possible contributors and called on governments to investigate them. Because the analysis compared population-level mortality trends over time, it could not determine how many deaths, if any, were linked to each factor.

Concern about how the paper was being interpreted prompted BMJ to issue an expression of concern less than two weeks after publication. The journal emphasized that the research examined mortality trends rather than their causes.

Why BMJ Public Health Retracted the Study

According to the retraction notice, the decision followed BMJ’s review and an investigation by the Princess Máxima Center for Pediatric Oncology in the Netherlands, an affiliation listed by three authors. The center examined co-authors Minke Huibers and Gertjan Kaspers, but its report did not assess Mostert because she was unavailable to participate.

The committee found that the paper gave too much attention to vaccines and containment measures as possible causes of excess mortality while giving too little attention to other explanations. It also found that the discussion cited research supporting that argument while leaving out evidence that challenged it.

The committee did not find scientific misconduct or malicious intent. It attributed the problems to carelessness, gaps in knowledge, and negligence.

According to the retraction notice, Huibers, Kaspers, and the center supported retracting the paper because continued misinterpretation could pose a public health risk. Huibers and Kaspers, however, disputed BMJ’s conclusion that the article contained misinformation.

Mostert and co-author Marcel Hoogland opposed the retraction. According to her Senate testimony, Mostert said the researchers had not claimed certainty about the causes of excess mortality and that she proposed revisions addressing vaccine effectiveness. BMJ concluded that those changes would not resolve its concerns.

The retraction notice does not accuse the authors of inventing the reported death totals. It points instead to how they framed the results and described the study’s limits. The paper documented a pattern, not an explanation.

This article is not offering medical advice and should be used for informational purposes only.

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Article Sources

Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:

  • This article references information from BMJ: RETRACTION: Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022
  • This article references information from BMJ: RETRACTED: Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022
  • This article references information from BMJ: Expression of concern: Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022
  • This article references information from Princess Máxima Center: Anonymized Report
  • This article references information from the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Mostert-Testimony