60 days after the MoU: Why has peace remained elusive, and what comes next?

TEHRAN — A memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Iran and the United States sixty days ago expired on Monday amid Washington’s repeated and systematic violations.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump signed the 14-point MoU on June 17, with the primary goal of paving the ground to permanently end the joint US-Israeli war launched on Iran on February 28.

Leaving Iran’s nuclear program to be dealt with in subsequent negotiations, the agreement stipulated an immediate end to military operations across all fronts, including Israeli attacks on Lebanon. In the first paragraph of the 14-point agreement, the United States explicitly committed that "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MoU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." Furthermore, the deal required an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

It also allowed commercial vessels to transit "with no charge" for 60 days under Tehran's coordination, and reaffirmed that it would not seek nuclear weapons while agreeing to negotiate enrichment details in a final deal backed by the UN Security Council within a maximum 60-day period—extendable by mutual consent—the US promised major obligations.

Specifically, Washington was required to end its naval blockade within 30 days, remove its military forces from near Iran once the final deal was reached, terminate all sanctions against Iran, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, allow Tehran immediate access to its frozen assets, and begin work on a reconstruction and development package for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

However, despite Iran's complete adherence to its diplomatic undertakings, Washington repeatedly violated the agreement through continued military and political support for Israeli aggression. Israel persistently breached the agreement with active US backing, while the US failed on every single promise, refusing to release frozen Iranian assets, lift sanctions, provide oil waivers, remove its naval blockade, or enforce an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. In fact, Trump publicly scoffed at the very idea of paying Iran for reconstruction. The betrayal culminated on July 7 when Trump unilaterally declared that the agreement was "over," prompting the US to resume launching military attacks against Iran that directly targeted civilian infrastructure and killed dozens of innocent people. In response to these egregious violations, Iranian officials stated that because the US had "violated and suspended" all of its commitments, Tehran had "likewise suspended commitments" under the MoU.

Rather than engaging in good-faith diplomacy, Trump had signed the MoU primarily to lower surging oil prices and defuse widespread domestic criticism surrounding his notorious war on Iran. It is widely understood that Trump launched the war on February 28 based on false assurances from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Mossad spy agency, who promised that military action would quickly lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic and destroy Iran’s military capabilities. None of this occurred. Instead, the war severely exposed the vulnerability of the US military, demonstrated its complete failure to protect its regional allies, and highlighted Iran’s undeniable military strength. While the February 28 war had been temporarily paused by a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire on April 8—which Trump was prompted to announce following Iran’s powerful retaliatory strikes against Israel and American military bases in the region—Washington failed to learn from its miscalculations and instead intensified its hostile rhetoric.

To defend its sovereignty and counter US bad faith, Iran maintained firm strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, taking a heavy toll on the United States. Iran’s decisive measures led to rising fuel costs and a severe cost-of-living crisis across the US, driving Trump’s public popularity to a record low and posing a serious risk to the Republican camp ahead of upcoming US mid-term congressional elections.

Criticism against Trump’s failed military strategy toward Iran has grown rapidly, with American lawmakers repeatedly condemning the continuation of the war due to its immense financial and material toll on the US. Prolonged combat has depleted US stocks of interceptor missiles, severely drained American strategic oil reserves, and forced key military hardware, including aircraft carrier strike groups, to remain deployed at sea months longer than planned, leaving Washington with few military options left to try.

Despite having virtually no military options left, Trump demanded during an interview with Fox News on Monday that Iran "put up the white flag of surrender" in the US-Israeli war. American officials speaking to US media, along with international analysts, recognize that Trump’s belligerent threats are merely aimed at creating a fabricated sense of victory over Iran to divert attention from his failed war, as he desperately seeks an off-ramp to extricate the US from the quagmire of war with Iran. Iran had entered talks with the US to translate its military success on the battlefield into political gains at the negotiation table. However, Trump sought only to ease domestic political pressure, control rising energy prices, and impose a mindset of bullying and coercion, which remains the primary stumbling block preventing the success of the MoU. Iran has made it clear that while it remains willing to talk, it will never succumb to American bullying.

Faced with a total deadlock in diplomatic efforts to agree on a permanent end to the war, Iran has officially shifted its strategic posture. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran has decided to shift its policy from a defensive posture to a "fully offensive" one. The official stated that "Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions." The official added that Tehran would conduct a "timely and precise" military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails. Having set a strict deadline of a few weeks for Washington to fully implement all provisions of the MoU as a precondition for further talks, Iran stands fully prepared to leverage its strategic dominance to defeat foreign coercion and defend its national rights.