Implying an upside of 37%, the brokerage’s estimate of 38% three-year revenue CAGR is led by 31% premium CAGR and higher take-rates. Adj. EBITDA margin is expected to improve from -10% to +10%, in this base case scenario, driven by operating leverage, higher retention (26% in FY29 vs 22% in FY26) led by rise in health renewals and technology allowing relationship managers to handle more distribution partners.
The brokerage expects the platform to onboard 100-125k partners (15% CAGR) over FY26-29e. This combined with improving partner productivity, noting a third of the distribution partners have been added in the last 2 years, could drive 31% premium CAGR till FY29e. Further, improvement in take rates led by profit sharing models could result in 38% revenue CAGR till FY29e.
POSP is among the fastest growing insurance sales channels in India, with 6% of premiums. The channel has grown 2-4x faster as compared to agencies and banks in the last 5 years. Platforms such as Turtlemint, which operate POSP networks offer insurers an alternative route to B30+ markets, which are typically difficult to penetrate. Turtlemint Fintech Solutions’ granular POSP network & tech stack drives better profitability on a smaller base, according to the brokerage. Turtlemint has 20% market share in POSP premiums.
Partner productivity i.e., premium generated per active partner, is expected to improve by 8% CAGR over FY26-29e led by cross-selling of other insurance products as well as increase in avg. ticket size, the brokerage stated in its report.
PB Fintech, which is the largest POSP in India, according to the brokerage.
Jefferies sees low risk of AI disintermediation for Indian insurance distributors, citing that insurance in India is "sold not bought". While this is true globally, it is especially true in geographies with a lower life insurance penetration rate (such as India), as the consumer's awareness of financial products is more limited, according to the brokerage. Hence, the reliance on support from intermediaries increases, which is not only limited to educating the customer w.r.t. the product (which AI could provide), but w.r.t. "need for insurance" and claim processing.
Life insurance is predominantly a savings product in India with investors using policies to plan for life events and retirement, the brokerage stated in its report. This has been the reason behind LIC and insurers backed with large private/PSU banks dominating the life insurance market. Hence, Jefferies sees investors less likely to depend on AI platforms alone for selecting policies.
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