The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) is targeting the Eastern Cape as part of a strategy to weaken the ANC in two of its strongest provinces and push the governing party’s national support to around 30% by the 2029 elections, senior party insiders say.

The Eastern Cape, where the ANC won 62.2% of the vote in the 2024 national election, has become a focus for the Jacob Zuma-led party as the ANC battles leadership crisis and court challenges that have left its provincial structures in turmoil.

The MK Party believed it could gain ground in the province, particularly in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City, while exploiting divisions in the ANC, the sources said.

This week Zuma intensified the party’s campaign in the province, meeting traditional leaders and addressing public rallies — a strategy the MK Party used extensively in KwaZulu-Natal and other provinces during the 2024 election campaign.

A senior MK Party insider told the Mail & Guardian that the Eastern Cape had become a strategic priority. The source said the party’s performance in by-elections suggested that it could grow to between 15% and 20% on the national ballot.

“The plan was that Zuma should be the one who focuses on that area because he is the one who can open things,” the source said. “It’s a big area of focus for us and one that

we need to concentrate on. The by-elections showed us that we can grow in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City. That means we become very competitive.

“The big strategy is that we must push and get the Eastern Cape.”

The ANC’s internal problems have created an opportunity for its rivals.

The party’s Eastern Cape provincial elective conference was stopped by a court order in March after ANC members Lwazi Rotya, Sinethemba Mpande and Nompumelelo Mzotywa challenged the conference process, raising concerns about branch processes, delegate verification and accreditation.

With the conference unable to proceed and the term of the provincial executive committee (PEC) having expired, the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) appointed a provincial task team in May to oversee the province.

The decision was challenged by Rotya, Mpande and Mzotywa, who said the appointment of the task team was unconstitutional, unlawful and in breach of the ANC’s rules.

The ANC has lost its attempt to overturn the ruling and is planning to appeal it.

The dispute has left the ANC’s provincial leadership in a state of uncertainty, providing an opening for the MK Party to attack the party in a province that remains central to its national electoral strength.

An ANC NEC source said the Eastern Cape and Limpopo had been crucial to the party’s ability to retain about 40% of the national vote in the 2024 elections. “If the two factions in the Eastern Cape don’t come together, it means that we will lose completely as the ANC.”

The MK Party source said the party’s next project was to weaken the ANC in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, while building support in Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

The source said the party did not expect most of its growth to come from KwaZulu-Natal, where it had made its biggest electoral breakthrough in 2024 but from the Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

“To wage an assault on them in the Eastern Cape needs president Zuma to lead it … We desperately need the Eastern Cape. It’s a strategic province for us because it weakens the ANC.… If we break them there and in Limpopo, it means we move the ANC into the low 30s in terms of votes.

“You need to have them that weak, infiltrated and rattled inside so that we can wage a proper assault on them.”

Another MK Party member said the ANC’s lack of elected provincial leadership had left it vulnerable.

“They are rattled; they are not organised and they are in inward-looking mode. When you are in that state, it gives your opponent an opportunity to come and destroy you. We are taking advantage of the political challenges they have.”

Another ANC NWC member said the litigation against the ANC was being funded by the MK Party and that people involved in the court action had been meeting members of the Zuma-led party.

The source alleged that MK Party members had encouraged people in the ANC to challenge the candidate nomination proces. The strategy was to leave the ANC without registered candidates in some wards, allowing the MK Party to secure councillors.

The source said people involved in the litigation had decided to leave the ANC for the MK Party and wanted to weaken the organisation before doing so.

“Their strategy is to divide the leadership, get them to fight and then move in. In the Eastern Cape, they found fertile ground with the conference and funded the comrades there. We hear one got R3 million from funders linked to the MKP. They even provided some of the comrades with cars with blue lights from KZN.”

However, the first ANC NWC source cautioned that the party had no proof that the MK Party was behind the litigation.

“What we need to do is meet the litigants and find out what they want to achieve. We don’t have proof that the MK Party is there but we have heard rumours that it is involved. Irrespective of whether the MK Party is involved, as we do not have proof, we must make sure that the two factions come together.”

ANC Veterans League president Snuki Zikalala said the league was concerned about the situation in the Eastern Cape. The issue had been raised at the ANC’s NWC and would be raised again. “It is a political matter and it must be resolved politically.”

The ANC’s Eastern Cape chairperson, Oscar Mabuyane, announced on Wednesday that the party’s national officials had reinstated the PEC.

Mabuyane said the leadership vacuum had been felt and that the party had been grappling with the challenges in the province.

“Many people now believe that they can do whatever they want to do in the Eastern Cape because there is a vacuum. There is no vacuum now. We are back and we will be able to deal with all the issues.”

On the court case, Mabuyane said those who had taken the ANC to court had effectively taken its NEC to court. “No court of law will be able to amend the ANC constitution, so we have got to go back. It was unfortunate that, on the eve of the conference, it was interdicted. It is sad and I hope it is not creating a precedent,” Mabuyane said.

“We are going to a national conference next year, from the 16th of December to the 20th of December. That is standard; that is known.”

Mabuyane said the party was dealing with a “counter-revolution” and that ANC members must be ready to confront it.