Year-round shipping is possible in Hudson Bay with ice-strengthened ships and a warming climate, according to a series of studies that backers believe bolster the case for a multibillion-dollar expansion of the Port of Churchill.

The reports, scheduled to be released in Winnipeg on Friday, conclude that Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait waterways could be navigable outside Churchill’s current four-month summer and fall shipping window without support from the most advanced and costly icebreakers.

The prospect is made more feasible by shrinking sea ice, which is expected to keep declining in the coming decades, the research shows.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said the results of the research show the Port of Churchill’s shipping season could be extended to 10 months or year-round without exorbitant icebreaking costs putting the project out of reach economically.

“Up until we saw this report, or some of the early findings from it, we were thinking that it would be one of these multibillion-dollar icebreakers that would be needed in order to keep Churchill open,” Mr. Kinew said in an interview.

“But this report is telling us, for a much more affordable class of ship, something in the area of $100-million new, or $50-million used, that we could open up that shipping lane for a huge chunk of the year, if not the entire year.”

Some industry players, including major potash exporters, have previously expressed little interest in accessing Churchill as a shipping hub, partly because of the short ice-free season. Backers hope to take that complaint out of the equation.

The Premier is an enthusiastic supporter of the expansion, which is aimed at transforming the aged northern port into a large transport facility for global shipments of critical minerals, potash, grain and energy products, including liquefied natural gas.

Churchill’s expansion is not a sure thing. But it is under consideration by Ottawa as a project potentially in the national interest and worthy of fast-track approvals. Its proponents say the port could open up new trade routes to Europe and other destinations as Canada seeks to cut reliance on the United States amid the tariff war waged by President Donald Trump.

The studies were conducted by Montreal-based maritime transport company Fednav, the Arctic Research Foundation and the University of Manitoba. The Globe and Mail reviewed some of the conclusions of the research, which was commissioned by Arctic Gateway Group (AGG), operator of the port and the railway that serves it; and by the federal and Manitoba governments.

AGG is owned by 29 First Nations as well as local governments in Manitoba and Nunavut. It is also planning to upgrade the Hudson Bay Railway to support increased shipments of commodities. This summer, the railway and port have handled grain cargo for the first time in six years, as well as small shipments of zinc and potash.

The expansion project, which is being led by AGG, is in the deal book for an investment summit in September to be hosted by Prime Minister Mark Carney. The gathering is aimed at attracting capital for his government’s major construction push. Mr. Kinew said he expects Churchill will generate keen interest among global institutional investors.

“We’ve been putting a lot of work into a very, very concrete offer to put in front of those international investors, and we’re just very excited about the opportunity to hopefully bring some investment to Canada and Manitoba from those meetings,” he said.

In its research, Fednav analyzed 10 years of ice charts, satellite imagery and regulatory requirements and concluded that ice-class vessels, which have heavy reinforced hulls and high-output propulsion systems, could be used year-round. Some ships, such as those that carry LNG, would likely require icebreaking escorts, Mr. Kinew said.

The Arctic Research Foundation said year-round shipping would offer new opportunities for building northern supply chains, increasing resource exports, resupplying northern communities, protecting Canadian Arctic sovereignty and increasing Indigenous partnerships.

Late last year, the province formed the Manitoba Crown–Indigenous Corp. to ensure First Nations and Métis peoples can participate in Churchill and other major economic initiatives, and to reduce risks for investors.