Super El Nino: is 2026 an ‘extremely destructive’ prelude? Next year might be worse

This year’s weather system may rival 1997–98 event but the bigger climate impacts could hit China in 2027, forecaster warns

Scientists warn that we are only seeing the prelude, and with the current event already rivalling historic climate disasters, it signals a potentially perilous future for the nation and the globe.

Jiang Hua, chief El Nino forecaster at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre, warned that although the most severe impacts of such an event often occur in the following year, this year’s “prelude” had already shown “extreme destructive power”.

“The entire tropical Pacific is like a pot of boiling soup,” Jiang said, in an interview with the Global Times on July 22. “In terms of intensity, this year’s El Nino could already rival the historically recognised super El Nino of 1997-98.”

In March, Jiang and her team detected large amounts of anomalously warm water beneath the surface in the tropical regions of the northern and southern Pacific and in the Indian Ocean.

These warm-water anomalies could converge towards the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accelerating the development of the event.