Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) stated this on its website, according to Ukrinform.

"Even government-controlled polls show that only 15–24% of Russians support continuing the fighting, while 64–67% support peace negotiations. Taking into consideration the atmosphere of fear in the country, the actual level of support for the war may be even lower. Ahead of the September state duma elections, this creates additional risks for the authorities – risks that even a rigged electoral system cannot fully eliminate," the SZRU said.

According to Ukraine's foreign intelligence service, Russian voters formally have a choice, but political competition has been eliminated.

Only candidates loyal to the regime are allowed to participate.

"The arrest of Boris Nadezhdin, who in 2024 attempted to position himself as an opponent of the war, was telling. Although he posed no real threat to the authorities, he was removed from the current campaign as well. This indicates that the Kremlin fears not individual politicians, but any possibility of channeling public discontent into the political process ," the agency stated.

The SZRU believes that, for the Kremlin, the absence of obvious protest leaders is more of a problem than an advantage.

"A leader can be discredited, arrested, or barred from the election. Without such a leader, the authorities do not know where the next hotbed of discontent will emerge. Therefore, repression becomes a preventive measure," the statement said.

The agency also noted that divisions are emerging within Russia's elite.

Read also:Russian propaganda uses AI to spread fake “cardboard protest” images

"Some members of Putin's inner circle are calling for a way out of the war before the economic and political losses become irreversible. The central bank acknowledges that financial stability is incompatible with the ongoing financing of the war, while oligarchs are establishing separate channels of communication with Ukraine," the SZRU reported.

According to the intelligence service, problems are also mounting within the Russian state system itself.

It recalled that Russian oil refineries continue to come under attack, the Russian fleet is suffering losses, and temporarily occupied Crimea is becoming increasingly isolated following a series of strikes.

"Against this background, Beijing is preparing for a scenario in which Russia's future will no longer be tied to Putin. There are two months left until the election, and there are no signs that the situation is stabilizing," the agency said.

The SZRU believes that the current situation resembles Belarus in 2020, when the regime faced mass protests that began as peaceful demonstrations.

According to the agency, in Russia the source of instability may no longer be civilian activists but hundreds of thousands of war veterans, many of whom have not received the promised benefits, jobs, or social status.

The intelligence service believes that if the disappointment of this group coincides with broader public dissatisfaction, the September 2026 elections could become not just another formality for the Kremlin but the moment when Russia's internal crisis turns into a full-scale storm.

As previously reported, President Volodymyr Zelensky did not rule out the possibility that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could announce a new mobilization campaign after Russia's parliamentary elections.