Australia is spending more than four times as much supporting fossil fuels as it does renewable energy, according to a report that warns the country risks losing tens of billions of pounds in export earnings by trying to be both a green superpower and a major coal and gas supplier.

The report comes months before the country takes charge of negotiations at this year's United Nations climate summit.

Governments in Australia provide an estimated A$20.1bn (about £9.9bn) a year in support to fossil fuels, against A$4.6bn (about £2.3bn) for renewable energy, according to Energy Crossroads, published by WWF-Australia.

The figures cover subsidies, tax concessions, and direct spending at federal and state level.

Australia holds the presidency of negotiations at Cop31, which runs from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye, under an unusual arrangement in which Türkiye hosts the conference and holds the formal presidency while Australia manages the talks, prepares draft texts and issues the summit's cover decision.

The Australian government has said the role gives it exclusive authority over the negotiations.

Australia secured the position after a year-long contest with Türkiye, arguing the case on behalf of Pacific island states and promising a special pre-COP in the region to draw attention to the threat climate change poses there. The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, will lead the negotiations.

The report argues that the country’s split approach, which it calls a hedge, is neither neutral nor prudent, because green and fossil industries compete for the same capital, policy attention and infrastructure.

Analysis prepared for the report by the consultancy Cyan Ventures estimates that Australia could lose up to A$70bn (about £34bn) in fossil fuel export value by 2035 as demand across Asia shifts towards renewables.

"Australia is pulling in two directions at once," said Rob Law, WWF-Australia's senior manager for energy transition.

"We can no longer afford to position ourselves as a renewable energy partner while simultaneously propping up and expanding fossil fuel production. This sends mixed signals to investors, undermines Australia's credibility as a trade partner and creates space for others to lead."

Australia is the world's second largest exporter of fossil fuel emissions, meaning the carbon released when its coal and gas are burned overseas, which the report puts at around three times its domestic emissions. Those exported emissions are largely excluded from the country's 2035 emissions reduction target.

At the same time, its domestic transition is among the fastest in the world. Renewables supplied a record 46.5 per cent of electricity in the National Electricity Market in the first quarter of 2026, and more than 400,000 household batteries have been installed through a federal programme.

The report finds demand for Australian coal and gas is already softening.

Australian liquefied natural gas exports and Asian LNG imports both fell in 2025, while modelling cited in the report suggests metallurgical and thermal coal demand in China, Japan, and India could begin declining within five years and fall by around 69 per cent by 2050 compared with a current-policies pathway.

Several planned LNG import terminals across Asia have been delayed or scrapped since early 2026.

Australian LNG faces a further problem in that it has the highest production and liquefaction costs among major exporters, leaving it exposed to losing market share to cheaper suppliers in the US and Qatar even within a shrinking market.

The report also questions how much the sector delivers to the public purse.

Once subsidies are counted, it puts the net contribution of fossil fuels to government budgets at around A$23bn (about £11.3bn), or a fifth of the estimated social cost of the emissions they produce, which it calculates at A$112bn (about £55bn) a year.

Camille Malbrain, WWF-Australia's renewable exports manager, said the country risked being left behind.

"This is a lose-lose strategy. Australia will be outpaced and less competitive in emerging green industries and tied to increasingly uncertain fossil fuel markets," she said. "Demand for fossil fuel exports is already weakening. We need to get serious about what comes next."

The report calls on Australia to plan for the decline of fossil fuels with clear timelines for thermal coal, metallurgical coal and gas, accelerate renewable and electrified energy systems, and redirect subsidies and public finance towards the transition. It also urges a rule barring new coal and gas approvals inconsistent with transition pathways.

Australia's government has defended its position. Ministers have argued that the LNG export industry has delivered revenue, royalties and jobs, and the industry minister, Tim Ayres, said in May that there was nothing inconsistent about pursuing renewable advantages while backing coal exports, telling the Newcastle Herald it was "not some sort of moral competition".