This was stated in an interview with Ukrinform by reserve major and political analyst Mykhailo Basarab.

According to Basarab, Crimea's significance for the Russian leadership extends far beyond its military or geopolitical value.

He said that for Vladimir Putin, Crimea had long become a symbol of his “victorious march,” a sign of the legitimacy of his arbitrary rule, and an important element of modern Russian imperial mythology. Basarab added that any serious setbacks for Russia on the peninsula would be perceived as evidence of significant weakness on the part of the Kremlin.

In his view, this could have a profound impact on Russia's domestic political situation.

Basarab argued that the main pillar of any authoritarian regime was the public's belief that the authorities were strong and capable only of winning. He added that if this belief were undermined, even a partial loss of control over Crimea could become the trigger for clearly destructive processes inside Russia.

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At the same time, the political analyst cautioned against oversimplifying any potential scenario for the peninsula's deoccupation.

He noted that even if Russia lost the ability to exercise effective control over Crimea, this would not automatically mean that Ukraine would immediately regain full control of the territory.

Basarab stressed that establishing effective control over such a territory would require enormous military, material, and human resources, which could remain critically needed on other fronts during the war.

He suggested that a transitional period could follow the loss of Russian control over the peninsula.

According to Basarab, a realistic scenario was one in which Russia would no longer be able to fully control Crimea, while Ukraine would not yet have the capacity to fully restore its own control. He emphasized that preparations for such a scenario should begin well in advance.

In his opinion, Ukraine's security agencies and Armed Forces should already be planning for such a development.

Basarab said that Ukraine should also begin developing legislation for a special transitional legal regime in Crimea and other liberated territories.

He added that restoring full Ukrainian state governance on the peninsula after its liberation would take time.

He concluded that returning these territories to normal life under Ukrainian governance would not happen overnight but would instead require comprehensive military, legal, and administrative preparation.

As Ukrinform previously reported, strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea and southern Ukraine are weakening Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations.

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