Dr Mamaeroa David on protecting against winter illness

Winter ills and chills are upon us, but while there are plenty of viruses going around, a health modeller says the flu season is yet to peak.

University of Canterbury mathematical modeller, Professor Michael Plank, said we were in the middle of the winter respiratory season, which was about normal for the time of year, but rates of influenza remained low.

It seemed there was either a small flu season this year, or a late one, Plank said, with the possibility of more illness yet to come.

In 2025, New Zealand had an extended, late flu season, Plank said with cases going through to December due to a new variant of influenza, which prolonged the season.

"It could mean we see a delayed flu season or smaller flu season this winter. There's a similar pattern in Australia as well.

"Influenza rates there have increased noticeably in the last couple of weeks and there are signs it might be starting to uptick here as well."

Plank said the start of the flu season could be soon, with a peak to come in the next month.

Cases of Covid-19 were also relatively low at present, Plank said, noting it was less seasonal than other viruses and could be a "little all over the place".

"Covid is at very low levels really, looking at the wastewater data, and hospital admissions [for Covid-19] were also very low at the moment."

RSV, Respiratory syncytial virus, was probably at its peak, Plank said, and there were various other viruses around causing similar cough and cold symptoms.

His advice was anyone who was ill should stay at home and keep up to date with vaccinations.

It was certainly not too late to get a flu vaccination, Plank said, as if a late flu season did begin, anyone newly vaccinated would gave high levels of immunity.

He also urged people to stay up to date with Covid boosters.

Senior Māori Medical Advisor with the Immunisation Advisory and Auckland GP, Dr Mamaeroa David, told Morning Report cold viruses were chugging along as well as RSV.

"I feel like we're getting one illness, getting knocked back, going back to kindy or work and getting the next bout of germs," she said.

She said if people could afford it, RAT testing for Covid, influenza and RSV could be useful to let people know what they had - especially since most GPs had a two to three week wait for appointments.

"If you know what you've got, you may not need to see a GP."

Flu vaccination rates were lagging, she said, but as flu season hadn't fully kicked in yet, she agreed there was still time to be immunised.

"Flu vaccination is funded for over 65s and people with other co-morbidities, but if it's not funded for you, most places, like Chemist Warehouse can give you the vaccine for about $24.

"The flu hasn't hit yet but it is coming."

Auckland school feeling the strain

At Glenbrook School in rural South Auckland, principal Lysandra Stuart said winter illnesses was having a large impact on learning with high levels of absenteeism from students and staff.

"We're probably seeing a little bit more than we would typically see at this time of year. If you're a parent and a staff memver you get the double whammy of your students and your children getting sick."

Last week, the first week back of term, Stuart said she had three staff off and and this week she already had to drop tools and get into the classroom to cover classes.

She said one day she had five classes in the school hall with her.

"We're seeing it with our working parents too... kids come back with a sniff or cough too early."

She said there were days where 50 to 60 percent of a class were away.

Brining in relievers could be "horrendously costly", she said, so her school often looked at splitting or doubling classes when teachers were away.

In a worst case scenario, Stuart said parents were asked to help out.

Her advice to parents was the "usual stuff", she said, including having a good routine around sleep, eating well if possible and looking after hygiene.

"If you need to stay home please do, because we don't want others getting sick."

The Ministry of Education's Helen Hurst, said the ministry was not aware of any widespread national staffing disruption across schools.

"Just like in the wider population, schools typically experience higher levels of illness during the winter months, and some schools may face temporary challenges managing staff and student absences."

She said schools had well established processes for managing illness and infectious diseases including accessing relief staff, adjusting operational arrangements and working with Health NZ and public health officials.

"We continue to encourage schools and families to follow health guidance on when children should stay home and when they are well enough to attend school."

Advice for businesses

The Employers and Manufacturers Association's (EMA) head of advocacy Alan McDonald said he hadn't heard of any major disruption to workplaces due to illness this winter.

He said sickness at work hit each business differently, and the answer could sometimes be getting in a contractor to help or having to rely on other people doing a little bit extra.

"Generally employers are much more... they recognise sickness in the workplace as something they need to manage well. The days of 'oh I've got a head cold, I feel a bit miserable, but I'll come into the office', that's over.

"If Covid taught us anything it's that if people are sick in the workplace you don't want them coming in, you don't want them infecting other people, so generally the best management is to tell them to stay home."

McDonald said this is what the EMA told its employees.

"We don't want that running through the workplace because of the issues that causes so the way to manage it is stay home."