5 things to know about Negeri Sembilan’s state polls on Aug 1 - a high-stakes test for Anwar’s PH

Interest is centred on whether Pakatan Harapan can rebound from a dismal performance in the Jul 11 Johor state election and fend off a challenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.

KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE: Nearly 900,000 eligible voters in Negeri Sembilan could head to the ballot boxes on Saturday (Aug 1) in a state election widely seen as a high-stakes test for Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

All eyes will be on whether PH can rebound from a dismal performance in the Jul 11 Johor polls, retain a state where it is the incumbent, and fend off a challenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.

PH is contesting all 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly.

Its partner at the federal level, Barisan Nasional (BN), has fielded candidates in 25 of those seats in an alliance with opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN), which is contesting the remaining 11 seats.

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), a PN member, is contesting in the election on its own and fielding 24 candidates, setting up contests against its coalition partners amid rifts within the opposition bloc.

The PN-BN pact is widely seen as the clearest sign yet that the federal unity government may not last until the next general election, due by February 2028, even as BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi insists it will stick with Anwar's unity government until the current federal parliament's term ends.

Analysts have said after losing ground in the Johor state election, another PH setback in Negeri Sembilan will pile pressure on Anwar to dissolve the federal parliament, paving the way for a snap general election.

Retaining control of Negeri Sembilan would hand Anwar an equaliser, showing he can campaign effectively in a state led by a chief minister from his own party.

It will not be an easy task, experts have said.

The BN-PN pact is likely to consolidate the crucial Malay vote at the expense of PH, observers said, giving them an edge in Negeri Sembilan.

The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), BN’s lynchpin party, won 14 seats in the 2023 state polls while PH secured 17 and PN won five.

Before the state assembly was dissolved, Negeri Sembilan was governed by a PH-BN administration, replicating a power-sharing model of the federal unity government.

To form the government in Negeri Sembilan, 19 seats are needed.

WHEN WILL RESULTS BE OUT?

Early voting took place on Tuesday, with the turnout of over 91 per cent exceeding the target set by the Election Commission (EC).

A total of 14,995 early voters, consisting of military and police personnel as well as their spouses, cast their ballots at 38 polling centres statewide, news agency Bernama reported.

Most voters will however cast their ballots on Saturday between 8am and 6pm.

The EC is targeting a turnout of between 72 and 75 per cent, its chairman Ramlan Harun said, citing the “lively campaign atmosphere”.

The turnout was 68 per cent in the 2023 polls, according to news outlet The Edge.

Ramlan said on Friday that the full results of Saturday’s polls would be announced before midnight, with preliminary results expected from around 10pm, reported Malay Mail.

In the 2023 state polls, the EC announced at about 10pm that the PH and BN alliance had secured a two-thirds majority, although unofficial results began emerging earlier.

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?

Ong Kian Ming, a Democratic Action Party (DAP) member and former deputy minister, has predicted that BN-PN is likely to win between 23 and 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan.

“With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both of these coalitions will exceed 70 per cent and allow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which allowed PH to win a number of seats in the state elections in 2018,” he wrote in a commentary published by local media on Jul 27.

In the 2018 election, PH had contested in three-cornered fights against BN and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) in the majority of seats.

In the 2023 polls, BN scraped through with narrow majorities across multiple seats, while PAS made history by capturing its first-ever seats in the state on the back of rising Malay-majority support.

PAS is the dominant party in PN while DAP is part of PH.

Think tank Ilham Centre predicts that the PN-BN alliance is on track to win at least 22 seats to form a “stable majority”, while PH is projected to win at least nine seats.

The remaining five seats are difficult to predict, it said.

Political analyst Adib Zalkapli of Viewfinder Global Affairs said PH would “need a miracle” to retain Negeri Sembilan but if it does, it would be a “huge relief” for the prime minister.

“It would also provide a much-needed boost, allowing Anwar to argue that his position at the federal level remains secure and that he continues to enjoy strong political support,” he told CNA.

Observers also previously said that a hung assembly remains a distinct possibility - with PN-BN and PH each garnering 18 seats as neither fails to reach the 19-seat threshold for a majority.

“We can expect prolonged negotiations between the coalitions once the final votes have been counted,” Adib said.

“Should no coalition secure a clear majority, the (ruler) is likely to play its constitutional role in facilitating the formation of a stable Negeri Sembilan government,” he added.

With PN’s cooperation with BN expected to consolidate the Malay vote, Adib said the election would provide a test of whether the pact could become a viable model in other parts of Malaysia.

“How the Malays vote in Negeri Sembilan will determine if the alliance should be replicated elsewhere,” he told CNA.

Socio-political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said that although the prevailing view is that BN-PN alliance has the advantage, Anwar’s PH still has a “genuine, though slim chance” of pulling off an upset.

He pointed to PH’s solid support base in urban and mixed constituencies as well as multi-cornered contests resulting from Bersatu’s participation that could split the Malay vote that might otherwise consolidate behind the BN-PN alliance.

“The biggest question is whether UMNO's traditional supporters are truly willing to vote for PN candidates, and whether PN supporters are equally prepared to transfer their votes to BN,” he told CNA.

“Vote transfers agreed upon at the leadership level do not necessarily translate fully at the ballot box.”

Echoing Adib, Awang said a PH victory would provide Anwar with “much-needed political breathing space” following PH’s heavy defeat in Johor, while also countering the narrative that support for the federal government has declined.

“(A PH win) would demonstrate that Johor's ‘blue wave’ cannot be automatically replicated across the country, as Negeri Sembilan has a different demographic composition and political culture,” he said.

Blue is BN’s official colour and is used in its logo and prior to the Johor polls, its leaders have said that a victory there would serve as a catalyst for a wider “blue wave” comeback, strengthening its position as a key political force.

RACIAL ISSUES TO THE FORE

Politicians have made controversial remarks about race during the campaign.

On Jul 29, PAS’ election director Sanusi Md Nor said in a campaign speech “Malays only have Malaysia”, while the country’s ethnic minorities had ancestral ties to places like China and India.

Sanusi’s remarks triggered swift criticism from minority race politicians in PH, who saw it as a veiled attempt at stoking racial tensions in the Malay-majority country. Police reports were filed against him.

Sanusi, who is Kedah chief minister, has defended himself by saying he was only speaking facts, and that others were twisting it for political gain. He also threatened legal action against anyone who tried to manipulate his comments.

Senior BN leaders including Zahid have quickly distanced themselves from Sanusi’s remarks, stressing Malaysia’s multi-racial reality. Sanusi should remain in Kedah and not campaign in Negeri Sembilan, Zahid said.

PM Anwar has also weighed in, saying Malaysia’s strength lies in embracing all citizens.

"Especially among the Chinese and Indian communities, who are loyal, accept the constitution and are good citizens, we must embrace them as Malaysia's strength," he said last week, as quoted by the New Straits Times.

Early this week, Shukri Shamsuddin, UMNO information chief for Rembau division, claimed in a speech that the Chinese-majority DAP controlled several spheres of power in Negeri Sembilan, including the chief minister and royal institution.

This came amid an already tense backdrop involving a royal dispute in Negeri Sembilan that sees two claimants to its throne and internal disagreements among the chieftains who elect the ruler.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ROYALTY

The snap state election in Negeri Sembilan can, in fact, be traced back to the ongoing royal dispute.

Fourteen BN assemblymen initially pulled support for PH chief minister Aminuddin Harun after accusing him of improperly handling the royal impasse.

During the campaign, the Negeri Sembilan palace warned political parties against dragging the royal institution into politics.

“(The royal institution) upholds the principle of neutrality and does not side with any political party,” comptroller of the royal household Azizi Mohamad Ali said in a statement.

"Therefore, any claims, statements, photographs, videos or other materials linking the Negeri Sembilan Palace, the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan or any member of the royal family to any political party are untrue.”

Both Anwar and Zahid had earlier pledged to steer clear of royal issues during the hustings.

But observers have highlighted the uncertainty when the winning parties’ choice of chief minister has to be appointed by the state ruler.

WHICH ARE THE SEATS TO WATCH?

A total of 103 candidates are contesting the 36 seats, which will see 11 straight fights, 21 three-cornered contests, two four-cornered contests and two five-cornered contests.

The key battlegrounds include Chennah, Linggi, Sikamat and Rantau.

Seramban-born DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is seeking a fourth consecutive term in Chennah, where he faces BN’s Siow Kong Choon in a straight fight.

Loke won the seat by a 2,200-vote majority in the 2023 state election but previous contests had been much closer, Free Malaysia Today (FMT) reported.

Loke defeated BN-MCA by 1,155 votes in 2018 in a three-cornered fight that included PAS, and by 1,098 votes in 2013 in a straight fight.

While PH remains the favourite to win in the mixed constituency, analysts told FMT that Chennah will be closely watched as shifts in Malay, Chinese and Orang Asli sentiments could determine the size of Loke’s majority.

Another closely watched contest is Linggi, where caretaker chief minister Aminuddin of PH has been shifted from his long-time stronghold of Sikamat, a seat he held for 18 years.

Aminuddin has said that his bid to capture Linggi from BN will be an uphill battle. The constituency has not elected a non-UMNO assemblyman since it was first contested in 1959, local media reported.

He will face incumbent Faizal Ramli of BN, who served alongside him in the Negeri Sembilan executive council, as well as Bersatu’s Zamri Said, who lost in the constituency in 2023.

Aminuddin’s move has also put the spotlight on Sikamat, where his political secretary Nor Azman Mohamad is contesting.

The race is expected to be a test of whether PH’s machinery can gather enough support without the chief minister’s personal appeal, FMT reported.

Aminuddin first won Sikamat in 2008 by a narrow 499-vote margin and retained it in 2013 with a 510-vote majority. Despite facing more crowded four-cornered contests in 2018 and 2023, he went on to secure much larger victories, widening his majority to 3,413 and 2,662 votes respectively.

In Rantau constituency, Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan will be defending the BN stronghold in a straight fight against PH candidate Azizul Hakim in the latter’s electoral debut.

In the final stretch of campaigning, PH chairman Anwar as well as deputy prime minister and BN chairman Zahid were present at rallies across Negeri Sembilan in a last push for votes.