Why the NRL’s big five contenders can – and can’t – win the title

We’ve got five rounds left in the regular season and, in my eyes, five teams who can lift the Provan-Summons trophy.

Penrith are deserved premiership favourites, but I can see a world where the Panthers don’t claim the title as well. Here’s why.

Panthers

36 points, 15 wins, four losses. Form: 3-1

Why they can win: The Panthers have stability in key positions on the field. They’ve got stability in the coach’s box, and stability in the front office. It makes all the difference when the pressure of finals falls on your shoulders.

Penrith have the best and most successful big-game players in the NRL – Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Isaah Yeo, Moses Leota and Liam Martin have all owned the biggest moments in grand finals, Origins and Test matches. And of course, there’s a bloke named Nathan Cleary pulling the strings, on track for his first Dally M medal.

Why they can’t: Injuries. Dylan Edwards and Casey McLean have joined Mitch Kenny on the sidelines. Kenny’s out for a few weeks longer than the two backline stars but their depth is starting to be tested a little. Their next month too is another hurdle – they face a tough Warriors team at home followed by a short turnaround against the Roosters, then a trip to Melbourne into Canterbury. How Ivan Cleary manages his stars and how they pull up in four weeks is their biggest challenge.

Roosters

34 points, 14 wins, five losses. Form: 4-0

Why they can win: They’ve got X-factor all over the paddock – Sam Walker and Mark Nawaqanitawase are the two most dangerous and unpredictable players in the competition. The Roosters pack is young, well-balanced and can lay a match-winning platform.

Walker’s short-kicking game becomes extra potent as well in slippery night games, which they’ll be playing deep in the finals; no team scores more tries off the boot than the Chooks.

You can see the hunger in Trent Robinson and his side, too. They’re well aware they haven’t played a grand final in six years.

Why they can’t: Like the Panthers, fitness is a big factor – Daniel Tupou and Angus Crichton are due back just in time for the finals. Their record against Penrith is a worry, and so are their defensive frailties on either side of the ruck. Both Daly Cherry-Evans and Walker can be exploited by the best back-rowers in the game.

Warriors

32 points, 13 wins, six losses. Form: 3-1

Why they can win: The Warriors’ playing style – with an 82 per cent completion rate and great discipline – translates perfectly in finals and deciders. Their performances in big, important games this year show that. When they thrashed the Storm in Melbourne, they completed at 88 per cent, and in their two-point loss to Penrith in a classic they completed at 89 per cent.

The Warriors’ control of field position and pressure on the opposition is also built on discipline – on average they’re awarded 2.1 more penalties per game than they give the opposition. That’s better than any other team, and cheap penalties aren’t in their make-up.

If they can finish in the top two and jag two home finals, they will have momentum and an entire nation behind them.

Why they can’t: The Warriors are missing a superstar, particularly in their spine. There’s no Cameron Munster or Reece Walsh who can go out and win a game on their own.

Their young forwards like Leka Halasima, Jacob Laban and Tanner Stowers-Smith add real spark, but across their best 17 there’s not the big-game experience we see in the other contenders, where Origin stars and grand final winners are everywhere.

Sharks

32 points, 13 wins, six losses. Form: 5-0

Why they can win: Cronulla are the form team of the NRL and are playing with more confidence than any other team. They’re a settled squad, especially in the spine, where Nicho Hynes, Braydon Trindall, Blayke Brailey and Will Kennedy are all in career-best form. Addin Fonua-Blake is leading their pack superbly too, and importantly, the Sharks are injury-free.

Why they can’t: It’s the same knock that’s always hung over this side – can they go to another gear in the finals? The pressure mounts with every year and won’t go away until Cronulla prove they can win three or four big games in September. Today, they’re flying with nine wins from their last 10 games, but we’ve still got eight weeks until the grand final. I wonder if they’ve peaked early?

Dolphins

30 points, 12 wins, seven losses. Form: 2-2

Why they can win: The Dolphins have the best backline in the competition, and Isaiya Katoa – the best young halfback in the NRL for mine – guiding them around the paddock. I love their tough, rugged pack, especially the workhorses coming off their bench like Tom Gilbert, Max Plath and Kurt Donoghoe.

Why they can’t: Similar to Cronulla, the biggest question mark is: “Does this side have four tough finals wins in it?” Obviously, the Dolphins are outside the top four too, so they need to work their way up to ensure they get at least one semi-final at Suncorp Stadium. They’ll be the only Queensland team still standing in September, but they won’t have many friends when they come down to NSW.

Back-row bullies: Watch out for that step

On Friday night we’re at Allianz Stadium and I’m tipping a huge crowd for what should be a cracking contest between the Roosters and Canterbury.

The Roosters-Bulldogs rivalry was genuinely nasty around the 2003 to 2005 era – the players hated each other, the fans hated each other and the administrators hated each other too. The 2004 grand final – won 16-13 by Canterbury – was when it peaked, but I remember working at the old SFS for these games and the hostility was something else.

This week, it’s a real clash of styles and a fascinating one at that. The Roosters are flying after putting 82 points on the Cowboys, but you do have to be careful after a win like that. It doesn’t matter who you play, you can’t roll the last 20 minutes from one week into the start of the next game. You earn the right to play footy in that first 15-20 minutes.

If the Roosters knock off Canterbury I think they’ve got a real shot at the minor premiership.

The Tricolours face Penrith next Thursday night, and the Panthers are their bogey team. But the Panthers will also be coming home from New Zealand, with travel added to their short turnaround after a tough game against the Warriors, so the chance is there for the Roosters.

First up though, Canterbury will be targeting halves Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans especially. DCE’s defensive decision-making has been found out at times this year, and he and Siua Wong have their work cut out against Stephen Crichton and Viliame Kikau.

Watch the two back-rowers especially. Kikau’s big left-foot step is lethal and against Melbourne last week he actually stepped two Storm defenders at once while setting up Canterbury’s first try.

The Bulldogs will be tested too though, because Wong likes to play the same way – his big right-foot step will have him coming back inside at the gap between Crichton and Kikau.

One more tweak to Canterbury’s attack

While the Roosters’ attack is starting to thrive with James Tedesco both sniping around the ruck and skipping across the defensive line on the edges, I can still see a tactical tweak for Canterbury.

I’d be getting more ball to Jacob Kiraz in general play and bringing him in off his wing the same way NSW looked to involve Tom Trbojevic when he played right centre.

Canterbury’s attack has revolved around offloads and fast ball movement lately. Bringing Kiraz into the middle would accentuate this even more – his 3.7 offloads per game are the most in the NRL – and at the very least, create more unpredictability and a faster ruck speed.

I think Canterbury will put up a mighty fight in a physical contest, and it wouldn’t surprise me if things spill over in the middle. But with Lindsay Collins and Billy Smith returning and making the Roosters even stronger than last week, I just can’t go past them at home.

Joey’s tip: Roosters by sixFirst try-scorer: Billy SmithMan of the match: James Tedesco