Directly after the federal budget on May 12, I began my column with the words: “Didn’t anybody drafting last week’s budget think of the 95 per cent first home buyers?”
The budget – and its controversial tax changes – was ostensibly about helping younger Aussies onto the housing ladder by removing the artificial property inflators of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. It was meant to suppress the property market.
The problem was that this was just after the government enticed a whole heap of first home buyers into the market… with just 5 per cent deposits.
In my post-budget piece, I wrote: “In October last year, the government pulled the trigger – three months early – on a hugely expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which allows first home buyers to purchase with a 5 per cent deposit and avoid expensive lenders’ mortgage insurance.”
This is usually payable below a 20 per cent deposit but, under the scheme, the government goes guarantor for 15 per cent of your property so you can avoid that insurance, which is often tens of thousands of dollars.
But, as I wrote: “After paying your 5 per cent, leg-up-onto-the-ladder deposit, you take on a debt that is rungs and rungs higher than you otherwise might: 95 per cent.”
Prices will, ultimately, start rising again. It’s just a matter of riding it out.
And on October 1 last year, the allowable purchase price of the Home Guarantee Scheme was significantly lifted to include a bunch more properties and the means test abolished, to allow a bunch more first home buyers. In fact, all of them.
Well, guess what? In the past week, debate has flared – in light of a smallish market retraction so far – about just how many newer home owners now owe more money than their property is worth.
The Coalition says tens of thousands of the 60,000-plus first home buyers who entered the market in that first six months (not all of whom used the scheme), are at risk of falling into negative equity, though the total number across all home owners remains under 1 per cent.
So if you think you might be at risk, let’s get to the vital steps to avoiding negative equity stress.
Firstly, where property prices will land remains to be seen. But it’s worth remembering that most existing investors will simply hold on – their perks are too good to give up and the blanket nature of the CGT rules (to the government’s credit) makes no competing investment more attractive (although super remains attractive).
Underpinning property is that investors are far from panic selling. And that’s similar to what recent buyers need to avoid: being forced into pressure selling.
An asset’s value is only on paper; that value is only realised if you need to swap the asset for cold, hard cash. And the single key to avoiding that is being able to – ongoing – afford your repayments. That’s, of course, in the context of three rate rises so far this year.
Pure and simple, it’s about your outgoings and your income. In the cost-of-living squeeze, recent home buyers in particular will have squeezed outgoings to the extreme – that’s part of what you have to do to qualify for a mortgage (especially a 95 per cent one!).
But don’t miss either that to get a loan over the line, you must also pass a 300 basis-point interest-rate stress test. That means the lender has assessed that you can cope with 12 rate rises, where there have only been three.
So, with the outgoings side of your life-ledger possibly sound, how secure is your income? Because losing this is the big risk you want to mitigate.
Can you take steps to shore up your job? Do they recognise the contribution you are making? Perhaps you could even upskill to become more valuable to the business. The other employment unknown is illness or injury and there is insurance available for this: income protection.
Income protection is expensive but it is tax-deductible. You can also reduce its cost significantly by opting for a long wait period before it would begin to (75 per cent) replace your pay. And that’s where an emergency fund comes in. This can also subsidise you for the time until income protection insurance kicks in.
Indeed, the ideal is to have six months’ salary stashed – which may well be a pipe dream. But – for safety – just start squirrelling away what you can (for flexibility and access, the best place is in an offset account beside the mortgage in question).
If it’s too late for all that though, know that your lender is required to have a dedicated hardship department that must extend you concessions if you get into financial strife.
Instead of missing a repayment, as counterintuitive as it sounds, tell your lender you will struggle to make it beforehand. They’ll help – at least for a time.
Besides, missing a payment will affect your credit score. Entering a hardship arrangement with a lender will not; that arrangement will only be noted on your credit report, and not flow through to your score, for 12 months.
The other thing to appreciate is that, even if you have found or do find yourself in negative equity, it should be brief. Prices will, ultimately, start rising again. It’s just a matter of riding it out.
- Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence readers’ decisions about investing or financial products. They should always seek their own professional advice that takes into account their own personal circumstances before making any financial decisions.