WARSAW — A bad-tempered split in Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party is being greeted with joy by the centrist, pro-EU government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, but it’s unclear whether it will improve his odds of retaining power in next year’s election.

Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, called Tusk’s chances in the 2027 race “far from certain.”

Tusk’s Civic Coalition is far ahead in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls — with 32 percent support, compared with PiS’s 21 percent — but that does not offer a full picture of the electoral dynamics. All of the parties on the right together could still command a majority — but only if they’re able to cobble together a coalition after next year’s vote. Three of Tusk’s four junior coalition partners may fail to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament.