Retailers pin hopes for 2026 rebound on H2 lift

MANILA, Philippines — Retailers are counting on a stronger second half to salvage a difficult 2026, after soaring fuel prices and a weak global backdrop curbed discretionary spending.

Most retailers posted single-digit sales growth in the first half, but the Philippine Retailers Association (PRA) said momentum slowed sharply at the start of the second quarter as oil prices spiked amid the Middle East conflict.

READ: S&P cuts PH growth outlook to 4.1%

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“A lot of retailers took a nose dive at the end of March to April,” PRA president Alice Liu told the Inquirer on the sidelines of the group’s Outstanding Filipino Retailers Night. “But they were able to recover in May and June because when prices of oil stabilized a bit.”

Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (RRHI) saw a similar trend, with demand recovering after a weak April.

RRHI president and CEO Stanley Co said discretionary formats were hit hardest, while demand for essentials like food and drugstore items held steady.

“We felt the pinch around April and May because that’s when fuel prices went up so high,” Co told the Inquirer. “May had a bit of a recovery, June was back to normal.”

‘Rethink’ wage hike

Retailers are also watching the approved—but now suspended—P85 daily minimum wage hike in Metro Manila, which could further squeeze margins already strained by higher rents and logistics costs.

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The first tranche of P60 took effect on July 25 but was halted by a temporary restraining order issued by Branch 152 of the Pasig Regional Trial Court. The second tranche of P25 is due on Jan. 20 next year.

“We’re hoping that the TRO (temporary restraining order) will make them (government) rethink things,” Liu said. “In the end, we have to look at the growth of our economy at a long term. You can’t just please a certain group and then forget about all the others.”

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“While we want to give more to our employees, we need to make sure that we are also able to preserve jobs.”

Business groups have also flagged the wage hike as “very challenging,” especially for smaller firms still dealing with spillover from the Middle East crisis.

Despite the weak first half, Liu said retailers remain “cautiously optimistic” that demand will pick up, driven by the Christmas season.

“We’re hopeful. We remain cautiously optimistic,” she said. “A lot of retailers are preparing to recover during the rest of the year, but it will really depend on external factors.” /pai