Stripe is still private, so we mostly get data when the company chooses to give it to us. This week we got more than usual.

The Information reported Stripe’s 2025 revenue hit $6.8 billion, up roughly a third year-over-year, its fastest growth since 2021.

Free cash flow surged 52% to $3.2 billion. And Q1 2026 alone did $2 billion in revenue. Put that next to the February annual letter ($1.9 trillion in total payment volume, up 34%, and a $159 billion tender valuation) and you get the clearest financial picture of Stripe anyone outside the company has had.

The headlines are all about the $53 billion PayPal bid. The more useful stuff is underneath.

1. Growth Re-Accelerated at $5 Billion+ in Revenue, and AI Is Why

Most companies decelerate as they scale. That is just math. Stripe went the other direction: 2025 was its fastest revenue growth year since 2021, at a revenue base more than 4x larger than 2021’s.

Stripe processes subscription and usage-based payments for the AI labs, including OpenAI and Anthropic, and takes a cut of revenue lines that are compounding faster than anything in the history of software. It also sits under the long tail: Replit, Lovable, Vercel, Cursor, Base44, Midjourney. Stripe is not selling to the AI boom. It is taxing it.

That is a very good position to hold right now. If your revenue is a percentage of your customers’ revenue, and your customers are AI-native companies, you inherit their growth rate without paying their CAC.

What this means for you: Usage-based and revenue-share pricing models look very different in an AI cycle than they did in 2019. The companies with consumption-linked pricing are re-accelerating right now. The ones on flat per-seat contracts are watching NRR drift toward 100%. Stripe’s take-rate model is doing the work no sales team could do.

2. 47% Free Cash Flow Margins. At 33% Growth.

$3.2 billion of free cash flow on $6.8 billion of revenue is a 47% FCF margin. Free cash flow grew 52% while revenue grew 33%, which means margins expanded roughly 6 points in a single year. Back into 2024 and you get about $2.1 billion in FCF on $5.1 billion of revenue, or 41%.

Add growth and margin and you get a Rule of 80 company at $6.8 billion in revenue.

The median public B2B company is running a Rule of 30 to Rule of 40 today, and the ones in the 30s are getting punished for it. Stripe is roughly double the best public comps while growing faster than nearly all of them.

The mechanic: payments is a fixed-cost infrastructure business with a variable-revenue top line. Volume went up 34%, and the incremental cost of processing that volume was a rounding error relative to the incremental revenue. That is why the margin expanded instead of holding flat.

What this means for you: Efficiency at scale is now a growth input. Stripe is bidding $53 billion for a public company because it generates $3.2 billion a year in cash and does not need to ask anyone’s permission. Cash flow buys optionality that a headline ARR number never will.

3. The Non-Payments Business Is Now a $1 Billion Company Inside a $6.8 Billion Company

Stripe’s Revenue suite (Billing, Invoicing, Tax, and now Metronome) is on track for a $1 billion annual run rate in 2026. That is roughly 15% of total revenue coming from software attach rather than payment processing.

This line gets less attention than it deserves. Stripe’s net take rate on $1.9 trillion of volume is about 0.36%, and that number is under permanent pressure. Early customers like Shopify, Lyft, and DoorDash grew up, gained leverage, and started negotiating rates down and adding second processors like Braintree, Adyen, and Worldpay. Stripe is also actively pushing volume from cards toward direct bank withdrawals specifically to stop paying interchange and network fees.

So Stripe built and bought a software business on top of the payments business. It paid a reported $1 billion for Metronome, the usage-based billing infrastructure behind OpenAI, Anthropic, Confluent, and NVIDIA. Billing for AI is hard, because what a customer owes changes constantly and pricing tiers stack. Stripe called usage-based models the defining feature of the next decade and paid a billion dollars to say so.

What this means for you: When your core take rate compresses, the answer is a second revenue line with different pricing logic. Defending the original rate usually fails. Every B2B company with a transaction-linked model should be asking what its Revenue suite is.

4. Private and Profitable Is Now the Better Multiple

Stripe’s February tender valued it at $159 billion, up about 74% from $91.5 billion a year earlier. On $6.8 billion of 2025 revenue that is roughly 23x. On the Q1 2026 run rate of $8 billion it is about 20x.

Public B2B companies with similar growth would be lucky to get half that today. The forward multiple compression in public B2B has been brutal and has not really recovered.

Stripe gets the premium for three reasons: it is growing 33% at scale, it converts nearly half of revenue to cash, and it never has to explain a quarter to anyone. The tender structure is the key piece. Employees get liquidity, early investors get out, and the company avoids the disclosure treadmill entirely. Stripe even used its own balance sheet to buy back shares.

Staying private used to mean a liquidity problem you eventually solved with an IPO. Stripe has decoupled the two.

What this means for you: The IPO is no longer the default endgame for a category-defining B2B company. If you can generate real cash and run periodic tenders, you can stay private more or less indefinitely and get a better multiple doing it. That changes how you should think about your cap table and your secondary policy right now, not in year eight.

5. The $53 Billion Bid Is About Buying What Stripe Cannot Build: Consumers

Stripe and Advent International offered $60.50 a share for PayPal, about $53 billion, with roughly $50 billion in committed bank financing led by JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. PayPal’s board rejected it this week as inadequate and is reportedly holding out closer to $70 a share.

Stripe does not want Braintree, which competes with it directly and would likely get carved out to Advent to clear antitrust. The prize is Venmo and PayPal’s consumer wallets: hundreds of millions of accounts already linked to bank accounts.

Stripe is trying to route payments away from cards and toward direct bank debits to escape interchange. It has Financial Connections (a Plaid competitor) and Link, its own wallet with 200 million users. What it does not have is a consumer brand that a normal person trusts enough to link a checking account to. PayPal and Venmo have exactly that, and it is the one asset Stripe cannot code its way to.

PayPal peaked at roughly $360 billion in 2021 and traded around $42 billion before the bid leaked, a decline of more than 88%. The company is cutting about 20% of its workforce under a CEO who started in March.

What this means for you: Distribution and trust are the assets that do not commoditize. Stripe out-executed PayPal on infrastructure for fifteen years and is now willing to pay $53 billion for the thing it never won: the consumer relationship. Whatever you are building, be honest about which of your assets a well-funded competitor could rebuild in eighteen months and which they would have to buy.

The Adyen Comparison: Same Business, Opposite Trajectories

Adyen is the cleanest public comp to Stripe, and the gap between them right now is worth studying.

Adyen’s Q1 2026: net revenue of €620.8 million, up 16% reported and 20% on a constant currency basis, on €382 billion of processed volume, up 21%. Full-year guidance is 20% to 22% constant currency growth. EBITDA margins are running around 53% with a target above 55% by 2028. By any normal standard, that is an excellent business.

| Stripe | Adyen | |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 revenue | $2.0B | €620.8M (~$728M) |
| Revenue growth | ~33% (FY2025) | 16% reported, 20% cc |
| Annual volume | $1.9T (2025) | ~€1.5T annualized |
| Net take rate | ~0.36% | ~0.16% |
| Profitability | 47% FCF margin | ~53% EBITDA margin |
| Valuation | $159B (Feb 2026 tender) | ~€26B / ~$30B market cap |
| Multiple | ~23x revenue | ~9.8x P/S, ~5.9x EV/revenue |
| Last 12 months | Valuation up 74% | Market cap down ~44% |

Stripe’s take rate is more than double Adyen’s. Adyen competes on price with large enterprise merchants and wins on unit economics and platform depth. Stripe monetizes volume at over 2x the rate, because its customer mix skews toward smaller and faster-growing businesses that pay closer to rack rate, plus a software attach Adyen is only now building.

The valuation gap is almost entirely about customer mix. In a take-rate business, your growth rate is your customers’ growth rate. Adyen’s merchant base is Uber, eBay, Spotify, and Microsoft: outstanding companies compounding at roughly GDP-plus. Adyen’s Digital segment, the ecommerce core, grew just 9% reported in Q1. Stripe’s growth is coming off OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, Replit and a cohort of new businesses growing 50% faster than last year’s. Same product category, same profitability profile, roughly 4x the multiple.

Both are racing to the same place. Stripe bought Metronome for a reported $1 billion. Adyen bought Orb for $335 million and closed it July 1, alongside Talon.One at €750 million. Metronome bills OpenAI, Anthropic, Confluent and NVIDIA. Orb bills Vercel, Glean, Replit and Supabase. Two of the largest payments companies in the world spent 2026 buying usage-based billing infrastructure for AI companies. Both are betting the next decade of revenue lives in metering, not in moving money.

A caveat on those multiples: Stripe’s $159 billion is a tender price set by insiders and invited investors, not a liquid market clearing every day. Adyen’s number gets marked to market every second, including on the bad days. Part of the 23x versus 5.9x gap is real AI exposure, and part of it is the difference between a price and a quote.

The Cohort Data Is the Real Warning

Buried in Stripe’s numbers: the number of companies reaching $10 million ARR within three months of launch doubled year-over-year. The 2025 cohort is growing about 50% faster than the 2024 cohort. Stripe Atlas formations were up 41%, and 20% of Atlas startups charged their first customer within 30 days, up from 8% in 2020. 57% of new Stripe businesses were founded outside the US.

Stripe sees this before anyone else does, because it sees the money move. The time from idea to first dollar has collapsed, it has collapsed globally, and the competitive baseline has reset underneath everyone.

If you raised in 2024 and you are growing 80% today, that used to be excellent. The company that started six months ago may already be at your ARR. Stripe’s own financials say the same thing at scale: businesses attached to AI revenue are compounding at rates that did not exist in the last cycle, and the businesses that are not are getting repriced.

5 More Quick Learnings

6. Stripe is giving its AI Gateway away on purpose. It charges no markup and hands out free tokens, a metering-layer land grab it can fund out of $3.2 billion a year in free cash flow while most competitors cannot.

7. OpenRouter charges AI users up to 5.5%. Stripe nets about 0.36%. The layer that makes the routing decision captures roughly 15x the margin of the layer that moves the money, which is worth thinking about wherever you sit in your own stack.

8. Stablecoin payment volume doubled to roughly $400 billion in 2025, an estimated 60% of it B2B. Stripe bought Bridge for $1.1 billion, backed the Tempo blockchain, and joined the Open USD consortium alongside Visa, Mastercard and Coinbase, all on the bet that stablecoins are the rail for AI agents paying each other.

9. GitHub pushes grew 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, and iOS app releases jumped 60% year-over-year. Pushes had run at 10% to 12% for years, and with Stripe Atlas formations up 41% on top of it, your competitive set just got much more crowded and mostly from outside San Francisco.

10. More than 100,000 claimable Stripe sandboxes were created inside tools like Replit, Vercel, Manus and Base44. Developers are wiring up payments from within an AI coding environment without ever visiting Stripe’s site, which means getting installed mid-build now beats winning a procurement cycle.

Sources

Stripe’s 2025 revenue ($6.8 billion), free cash flow ($3.2 billion, up 52%), and Q1 2026 revenue ($2 billion) were reported by Yueqi Yang at The Information on July 22, 2026, citing a person familiar with the company’s financials. Stripe declined to comment. Volume, cohort, valuation and Revenue suite figures come from Stripe’s own 2025 annual letter and February 2026 tender announcement. PayPal bid terms and the board’s rejection are per Reuters, the FT and Bloomberg. Adyen figures are from its Q1 2026 business update (May 6, 2026), its Orb and Talon.One acquisition releases, and market data as of July 21, 2026. Adyen reports H1 2026 results on August 13.