Argentina's economic activity rebounded by 0.8 percent in June after two consecutive months of decline, ending an uneven first half of the year, the INDEC national statistics bureau said on Thursday.

The monthly economic activity index (EMAE), which provides an early indication of gross domestic product (GDP), showed activity was 2.7 percent higher in June than in the same month of 2025.

That was the second-largest year-on-year increase since March, when the index rose 6.2 percent.

Mining was a major driver of the increase, with activity in the sector rising 15.6 percent year-on-year. Together with agriculture, it contributed 1.1 percentage points to the overall index.

On a monthly basis, economic activity rose 0.8 percent from May. The trend-cycle series, which strips out seasonal factors, increased 0.2 percent.

Despite the contraction recorded in February, activity was up 1.9 percent in the first seven months of the year compared with the same period in 2025, according to INDEC.

“Economic activity is flying,” President Javier Milei wrote on X after the figures were released. “This data is going to go down very badly with all the corrupt, paid-off journalists and charlatans with economics credentials,” he added.

The figures drew a more cautious assessment from economists.

“It sends a positive signal, but it should be interpreted with caution. Activity grew 0.8 percent month-on-month, although INDEC revised down the levels recorded in previous months. Therefore, the improvement is less substantial than a first reading might suggest,” said Diego Piccardo, chief economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.

Mining and agriculture lead growth

Mining and agriculture continued to be the two strongest drivers of economic activity, rising 15.6 percent and 4.6 percent respectively and together contributing 1.1 percentage points to the overall index.

Industry and commerce also returned to positive territory in June, growing 1.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

Construction was another sector to expand, rising 2.8 percent year-on-year.

“The gap between the two groups is the central point of the report,” said Sergio González, head of asset management at Cohen. “While mining and agriculture are growing at 15.6 percent and 4.6 percent, the other three sectors are expanding by between 0.8 percent and 2.8 percent and contribute less than half as much as the primary-sector bloc despite being much larger components of the index.”

“The difference matters because the lagging sectors are precisely those that are more labour-intensive: industry, construction and commerce account for the bulk of registered private-sector employment, while mining is capital-intensive and generates relatively few jobs per unit of output,” he added.

Fishing recorded an especially sharp increase of more than 240 percent year-on-year.

The surge was largely due to the revival of maritime fishing after a labour dispute in June 2025 brought the sector to a standstill. As a result, despite its exceptionally high growth rate, fishing's contribution to the overall index was just 0.44 percentage points.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose largest debtor is Argentina, has forecast that the country's GDP will grow 3.5 percent in 2026, down from the 4.4 percent growth recorded in 2025.

– TIMES/AFP/NA