What Matters Today
1 US consumer confidence has crashed to an all-time record low of 47.6 — below the previous worst reading of 51.7 from the 1980 energy crisis, declining across every demographic group, age bracket, income level and political affiliation, with one-year inflation expectations spiking to 4.8% from 3.8% in the largest monthly jump in over a year, and the University of Michigan’s director saying consumers blame the conflict for declining economic conditions
2 Q1 earnings season begins tomorrow with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both reporting on April 14, followed by Bank of America on April 15 — Goldman has designated these results as the “definitive litmus test” for whether the financial system can withstand the oil shock, with JPMorgan expected to report EPS of $5.32-5.50 and the focus falling on Apple Card integration, consumer credit delinquencies, and the M\&A pipeline
3 Sixty-five percent of Americans now expect a recession within the next 12 months, up from 59% in February — NerdWallet’s senior economist warns that “without a clear and certain end to the military conflict and oil supply disruptions, people are just going to be stuck with greater uncertainty,” and 2026 “could be the worst year on record for how people feel about the economy”
4 Canada’s CUSMA review has entered its critical phase with investment decisions still frozen — Vanguard Canada reports that “many investment decisions remain on hold ahead of the joint review,” as the US targets the Online Streaming Act, dairy market access and auto rules of origin, while tariffs on lumber, steel and aluminum are already constraining Canadian exports
5 Canada’s housing market remains stuck in a paradox — condo oversupply persists in Toronto and Vancouver while reduced temporary immigration is cooling rental demand but also cutting the construction labour supply needed to build the housing that would bring prices down, creating a circular trap that Ontario’s HST cut on new homes cannot solve alone
01 — Market Snapshot
Today’s USA \& Canada intelligence brief opens to the bleakest domestic data since the pandemic. Consumer confidence at 47.6 is not just a number — it is the lowest reading in the 72-year history of the Michigan survey, worse than the 1980 oil crisis, worse than the 2008 financial crisis, worse than the 2020 pandemic. The “soft landing” narrative that defined 2024 and 2025 is dead. Tomorrow’s bank earnings will determine whether the financial system has absorbed the shock or whether cracks are forming in credit that will cascade into the real economy. North of the border, Canada’s CUSMA paralysis and housing trap define an economy that was struggling before the blockade made everything harder.
| | | |
| --- | --- | --- |
| CONFIDENCE | APRIL | vs MARCH |
| Michigan Sentiment | 47.6 | −11% |
| 1-Yr Inflation Expect. | 4.8% | was 3.8% |
| Long-Term Inflation Expect. | 3.4% | highest since Nov ’25 |
| Recession Expectation | 65% | was 59% |
| | | |
| --- | --- | --- |
| MARKET | LEVEL | CHANGE |
| S\&P 500 futures | — | −1.1% |
| Dow futures | — | −517pts |
| WTI Crude | $104.80 | +8.5% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.38% | +6bp |
| Gold | $4,920 | +1.9% |
| Gasoline (nat’l avg) | $4.12 | rising |
03 — Fast Take
WALMART America’s largest retailer pivoting to private labels and essentials — strategic shift to “budget-conscious consumer,” retail sales flat 0.0% February after −0.2% January, discretionary spending collapsing at bottom of income distribution
WALL ST Banks pivoting from interest income to “Innovation Supercycle” fees — NII plateauing at 3.5-3.75% rates, Goldman and JPMorgan financing AI infrastructure (Alphabet $32B, Oracle $18B bond issuances for data centres)
PRIVATE $ Private credit $1.8T market flagged as vulnerable — Dimon warned loan losses for highly leveraged firms “could exceed expectations,” Goldman Q1 will show exposure data, delinquency acceleration \= systemic repricing risk
AI RISK Powell and Bessent jointly flag “systemic risk from advanced AI” — Anthropic Glasswing finding zero-days at superhuman rate, Claude Cowork disrupting per-seat models, Lloyds Bank put AI on its board, financial stability implications deepening
DEFENCE Defence stocks continue outperforming tech — Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon at heights, Dimon calls defence and energy “structural winners,” blockade intensifies supercycle, NATO 5% GDP target anchoring multi-year demand
TORONTO Toronto bidding for new global defence bank — Ford and Chow pushing city as NATO financial hub alongside London and New York, defence financing as growth sector for Canadian financial services
04 — Developments to Watch
ECONOMY • UNITED STATES
Consumer Confidence at All-Time Low 47.6 — Worse Than 1980, Worse Than 2008
What happened: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to 47.6 in April 2026 — the lowest reading in the survey’s 72-year history and significantly below the previous all-time low of 51.7 recorded during the 1980 energy crisis. This is the first time the index has fallen below 50 since June 2022. The collapse was universal: sentiment declined across all age groups, income levels and political affiliations, as well as every component of the index. One-year business condition expectations crashed 20%. Personal finance assessments fell 11%. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles deteriorated further, with consumers citing rising prices and shrinking asset values. One-year inflation expectations spiked to 4.8% from 3.8% — the largest single-month jump since April 2025. Long-term expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025. Nearly all surveys (98%) were conducted before the ceasefire announcement, underscoring the depth of the damage already done.
So what:
The 47.6 reading is not just a data point — it is the death certificate for the soft landing narrative. When consumer sentiment falls below its 1980 crisis floor, it signals that the American household has experienced a psychological break with the economy. The cascade is already visible: retail sales flat in February after declining in January, Walmart pivoting to private labels and essentials, buying conditions for big-ticket items collapsing. The
expectation spike to 4.8% is the most dangerous component: if expectations de-anchor, the Fed may be forced to hike rates regardless of what core CPI says, because expectations drive actual price-setting behaviour. NerdWallet’s finding that 65% expect recession within 12 months means the majority of American consumers are now making spending decisions as if a recession has already begun — which creates the very contraction they fear. For Latin American investors, the US consumer is the single most important demand driver for Latin American exports. A consumer in retreat means reduced orders for Mexican auto parts, Brazilian coffee, Chilean fruit, Colombian flowers and every other commodity that flows north. The Michigan 47.6 is Latin America’s problem as much as America’s.
CORPORATE • UNITED STATES
Q1 Earnings Begin Tomorrow — Goldman Calls It “Definitive Litmus Test”
What happened: JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs will both report Q1 2026 earnings on April 14 at 7:00am ET, followed by Bank of America on April 15. Goldman Sachs analysts have designated these results as the “definitive litmus test” for whether the financial system has the structural integrity to withstand the oil shock. JPMorgan is expected to report adjusted EPS of approximately $5.32-5.50, a 7% year-over-year increase, on revenue of roughly $48.56 billion. Key focus areas include: the integration of the Apple Card portfolio recently acquired from Goldman, consumer credit card delinquency trends, the M\&A and IPO pipeline, and private credit exposure where Dimon has warned losses “could exceed expectations.” Wall Street’s “Great Rotation” from passive net interest income to active fee-based revenue is the structural story: Alphabet’s $32 billion and Oracle’s $18 billion bond issuances for AI data centres show banks pivoting to technology infrastructure financing.
So what: Tomorrow’s bank earnings will set the tone for the entire market for the rest of the quarter. The scenario tree is binary: if JPMorgan beats on investment banking fees, shows resilient consumer credit quality and provides optimistic guidance, it confirms that the “fortress balance sheet” model can weather the oil shock, and a sector-wide rally follows. If credit card delinquencies are accelerating faster than expected, if private credit losses are materialising, and if the Apple Card portfolio shows stress, it validates the 47.6 consumer confidence reading and accelerates the recession narrative. The private credit $1.8 trillion market is the systemic risk nobody wants to talk about: these are loans to highly leveraged firms made outside the regulated banking system, and a Dimon warning about potential losses is as close to a fire alarm as Wall Street gets. For Latin American investors, US bank earnings determine the flow of capital globally: strong results \= capital continues flowing to EM; weak results \= capital retreats to safety, and Latin American bond spreads widen.
ECONOMY • UNITED STATES
65% of Americans Expect Recession — Spending Decisions Already Reflect It
What happened: A NerdWallet survey conducted by the Harris Poll found that 65% of Americans now believe the US economy will enter a recession within the next 12 months, up from 59% in February. NerdWallet’s senior economist Elizabeth Renter said that “without a clear and certain end to the military conflict and oil supply disruptions, people are just going to be stuck with greater uncertainty — something there’s been no shortage of in the past several years.” She warned that 2026 “could be the worst year on record for how people feel about the economy.” The Michigan survey corroborated the finding: one-year business condition expectations crashed 20%, personal finance assessments fell 11%, and buying conditions for durables and vehicles deteriorated further as consumers cited high costs linked to energy.
So what: The 65% recession expectation is not a forecast — it is a self-fulfilling prophecy already in motion. When two-thirds of consumers expect contraction, they cut spending preemptively. They delay car purchases (buying conditions “deteriorated further”), defer home improvements (mortgage rates in low 6%), reduce discretionary consumption (retail sales flat), and increase savings or debt reduction. This demand destruction is exactly what creates the recession they fear. Walmart’s pivot to private labels is the corporate acknowledgement: America’s largest retailer is pre-positioning for a consumer that is already behaving as if recession has arrived. The gap between the hard data (GDP still positive, unemployment below 5%, core CPI at 2.6%) and the sentiment data (47.6, 65% recession fear) is historically unprecedented — and history shows that sentiment eventually pulls the hard data toward it, not the other way around. For Latin American investors, the self-fulfilling recession dynamic means US import demand will weaken before any official recession is declared — the damage to Latin American export volumes begins now, not when the NBER eventually calls a recession.
TRADE • CANADA
CUSMA Review: Investment Frozen, Exports Constrained, GDP Artificially Inflated
What happened: Canada’s CUSMA review has entered its most consequential phase, with Vanguard Canada’s Q2 2026 outlook reporting that “many investment decisions remain on hold ahead of the joint review.” The US is expected to target the Online Streaming Act (which forced Netflix, Spotify and YouTube under Canadian broadcasting rules), dairy market access, and auto rules of origin. Sector-specific tariffs on lumber, steel, aluminum and non-CUSMA-compliant auto parts are already constraining Canadian exports. Vanguard warned that Canada’s headline GDP was “mechanically supported by declining imports — an adjustment that reflects weaker domestic demand rather than improved competitiveness.” Large-scale infrastructure spending, housing initiatives and defence commitments are placing “a structural floor under how far interest rates can be reduced.”
So what: The CUSMA freeze is Canada’s version of the consumer confidence collapse: businesses are making decisions as if disruption has already arrived. Every factory expansion that depends on cross-border supply chains, every logistics investment that relies on tariff-free trade, every hiring decision in Ontario’s auto sector — all paused until the review outcome is clear. The Vanguard observation that GDP is being inflated by declining imports (weakness masquerading as arithmetic) is the most honest assessment of the Canadian economy this year. The structural floor on interest rates means the Bank of Canada cannot ease its way out of weakness even if the economy deteriorates — infrastructure, housing and defence spending have locked in a minimum cost of capital. For Latin American investors, CUSMA’s review directly affects Mexico’s trade architecture: any concessions Canada makes on auto rules, dairy or digital services set the negotiating precedent that the US will seek from Mexico next. The two reviews are inseparable.
HOUSING • CANADA
Canada’s Housing Trap: Condo Oversupply, Labour Shortage, Circular Failure
What happened:
Canada’s housing market remains “balanced but uneven,” according to
’s CEO, with condo oversupply persisting in Toronto and Vancouver despite interest rate stability. Ontario’s budget extended the HST cut on new homes to all buyers, and Manitoba cut PST on groceries to ease cost-of-living pressure. But tariff uncertainty is weighing on construction starts. The deeper structural problem is the immigration-housing feedback loop: Canada reduced temporary immigration targets to cool housing demand, which reduced rental inflation but also reduced the labour supply that the construction sector needs to build the housing that would reduce prices. The result is a circular trap where every policy intervention in one variable worsens another.
So what: Canada’s housing trap is the most elegant illustration of policy circularity in the developed world. The government cut immigration to ease housing pressure. This worked on the demand side (rental inflation cooled). But it failed on the supply side (fewer workers to build homes). The HST cut stimulates new construction but cannot create the labour to build it. The condo oversupply in Toronto and Vancouver is the legacy of the 2021-2023 construction boom — a classic real estate cycle where supply took three years to arrive and landed just as demand weakened. Meanwhile, CUSMA uncertainty is freezing the commercial construction that diversifies the economy, and the energy shock from the blockade is raising the cost of every building material. Canada needs approximately 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to restore affordability (CMHC estimate). Current starts are running at roughly 250,000 annually. The math does not close without either massive immigration (which the government has cut) or massive productivity gains in construction (which AI and modular building could provide but have not yet delivered at scale). For Latin American investors, Canada’s housing dysfunction reduces the capacity of Canadian pension funds and REITs to allocate to offshore real estate markets, including Latin America.
05 — Sovereign \& Credit Pulse
United States — Michigan 47.6 (all-time low). Inflation expectations 4.8%. 65% expect recession. CPI 3.3% headline / 2.6% core. Gasoline $4.12. Dow futures −517. WTI $105. JPMorgan + Goldman earnings tomorrow. Private credit $1.8T vulnerable. Warsh delayed. Soft landing dead.
Canada — CUSMA review freezing investment. GDP 1.1-1.5%. Non-energy exports constrained. Housing trap: condo oversupply + immigration cuts \= labour shortage. Ontario HST cut. Pipeline debate. BoC holding. Energy exporter advantage narrow. Toronto defence bank bid.
06 — Power Players
Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO) — Reports tomorrow. EPS $5.32-5.50. Apple Card integration first test. Private credit losses warning. Defence/energy “structural winners.” Consumer “recently weakening.” The most consequential bank earnings call of the year
Joanne Hsu (Michigan Surveys Director) — Delivered the 47.6 all-time low. “Demographic groups across age, income and political party all posted setbacks.” The messenger of the worst consumer reading in American history
Mark Carney (Canada PM) — CUSMA review defining challenge. One seat shy of majority. Energy exporter advantage narrow. Housing trap deepening. BoC holding. Managing US trade relationship under maximum pressure
Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) — Warsh hearing delayed \= Powell may stay. But 4.8% inflation expectations create impossible dilemma. If expectations de-anchor, forced to hike into consumer collapse. Last major data as chair may have been Friday’s CPI. Legacy on the line
Doug McMillon (Walmart CEO) — Pivoting to private labels and essentials. America’s largest retailer pre-positioning for recession consumer. 4,700 US stores are the canary in the coal mine. If Walmart is retreating to value, discretionary retail is already in crisis
07 — Regulatory \& Legal
Fed Succession: Warsh hearing delayed. Powell may stay past May. 4.8% inflation expectations create pressure. New chair is 1 of 12 FOMC voters. September cut odds 15.4%. Hike scenario re-emerging if expectations de-anchor.
CUSMA Review: Formal talks since January. US targeting streaming, dairy, auto rules. Tariffs on lumber, steel, aluminum. Investment frozen. Canada diversifying slowly. Review outcome reshapes North American trade for a decade.
Private Credit: $1.8T market. Dimon warned losses “could exceed expectations.” Goldman Q1 will expose sector. Outside regulated banking. Systemic risk if delinquencies accelerate. Powell/Bessent also flagging AI-driven financial stability risk.
Apple Card: JPMorgan acquired from Goldman. First Q1 integration data tomorrow. Consumer credit quality of tech-savvy portfolio vs traditional JPM borrowers. Delinquency comparison will signal whether K-shape extends to credit.
08 — Calendar
APR 14 JPMorgan + Goldman Q1 earnings — “definitive litmus test,” Apple Card, delinquencies, M\&A, private credit
APR 14 IMF World Economic Outlook — US growth downgrade, inflation upgrade expected
APR 15 Bank of America Q1 earnings — consumer banking health, credit card trends
APR 14-18 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings — Reeves (UK), Lecornu (France), global finance ministers converging
APR 30 US March PCE — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, final pre-chair-transition data
MAY Powell chair term expires — Warsh hearing delayed, timeline uncertain
09 — Bottom Line
Today’s USA \& Canada intelligence brief is the brief where the numbers broke. Michigan 47.6 is not a data point — it is the worst reading in the 72-year history of America’s most important consumer survey, lower than the 1980 oil crisis, lower than the 2008 financial collapse, lower than the pandemic. When every demographic group across every age, income and political affiliation simultaneously retreats from economic confidence, something fundamental has changed. The “soft landing” that policymakers and markets spent two years constructing is not just threatened — it is over. The 65% recession expectation means two-thirds of American consumers are already spending as if contraction has arrived, and Walmart’s pivot to private labels is the corporate confirmation.
Tomorrow’s bank earnings are the last chance to challenge this narrative. If JPMorgan’s $5.50 EPS estimate holds, if consumer credit delinquencies are stable, if the M\&A pipeline is active and the Apple Card integration shows a healthy portfolio, then the financial system is absorbing the shock and the recession remains a sentiment phenomenon rather than a credit reality. If the numbers disappoint — if delinquencies are accelerating, if private credit losses are materialising, if guidance is cut — then the Michigan 47.6 is not just a survey. It is a leading indicator that the world’s largest economy is entering a contraction that no ceasefire can reverse, because the damage is now domestic, not geopolitical. Canada’s CUSMA freeze and housing trap are the quieter version of the same story: an economy that was already struggling before the blockade made everything harder.
For Latin American investors, this USA \& Canada intelligence brief delivers three signals that override everything else. First, the US consumer is in retreat — not just at the bottom (gasoline), not just in the middle (Walmart pivot), but across the entire distribution (Michigan: all demographics). Latin American exporters that depend on US consumer demand should assume weaker orders for the remainder of H1 at minimum. Second, tomorrow’s bank earnings are the binary event: a beat restores confidence and keeps capital flowing; a miss accelerates recession pricing and triggers capital flight from EM. Third, Canada’s CUSMA review is Mexico’s CUSMA review — any concession Canada makes on auto rules, streaming or dairy is the template the US will apply to Mexico next. The Michigan number is 47.6. It has never been lower. The earnings come tomorrow. Everything that follows depends on what Dimon says at 7:00am.