AI + ML

The truth nobody wants to admit: Chinese or not, open models are competitive now

Hey Uncle Sam, if you thought GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 were scary, get a load of Kimi K3

OPINION Every six months or so a Chinese model sparks a panic, calling into question America’s AI dominance. Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is the latest example.

Recall when DeepSeek R1 shook markets early last year? Following a similar pattern, Moonshot’s latest model isn’t all that interesting apart from its benchmark performance, and at nearly three trillion parameters it's beyond the reach of most enterprises.

For the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic, the technology isn't as interesting as its national origin. A Chinese model can be dangled as a threat to national security — Anthropic’s fearmonger and chief Dario Amodei has said as much in the past. Last month the executive accused Alibaba, another prolific Chinese AI model dev, of using Claude to improve its Qwen family of models through a process called distillation.

Those claims are rather rich coming from a man whose company just agreed to pay $1.5 billion to settle claims over vacuuming up millions of pirated books to train Claude. Pot, kettle black much?

With that said, the anxiety caused by Moonshot’s Kimi K3 does feel different. The model's size is a factor. At 2.8 trillion parameters, Kimi K3 is the largest open weights model ever built. The model’s girth certainly reinforces the idea that K3 is a frontier model. There are interesting architectural changes to the model, but from what we can tell, they aren’t at all related to the anti-China-AI rhetoric making the rounds right now.

But let's talk about the benchmarks! We’ve been down this road before with Z.AI’s GLM family, MiniMax M-Series, Qwen, and of course DeepSeek. A new model is released alongside benchmarks that show it trading blows with OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google’s best.

Kimi K3 is following that well-trodden path. Last week, Moonshot published a lengthy blog post packed with benchmark charts and demos showing off its new model, and predictably, told the same story as always: Despite US trade restrictions on American-made accelerators, Chinese model houses aren’t as far behind as Altman and Amodei would like.

What has changed is Uncle Sam’s attitude toward frontier models. GPT-5.6 was apparently concerning enough that the US government delayed its release, while Claude Fable 5 was pulled offline shortly after launch as officials investigated security concerns. As we later reported, the boogeyman hiding under Fable’s bed wasn’t some Lovecraftian horror. It didn’t even rise to the level of a Disney villain. According to one researcher, it was the sudden realization that generative AI models have achieved a level of competency that users can type “fix this code” and they'll do just that.

Yet, the disruption, however brief, may as well have been free marketing for Anthropic, which has been peddling the idea that open models are inherently dangerous.

In this respect, the drama around Fable 5 and GPT-5.6’s delay has become ammunition. If America's top models are enough to worry the US government, why shouldn’t Kimi K3? After all, OpenAI and Anthropic are American companies that can be bent to the Trump administration’s whim. But an open weights frontier model that originated in China? Not so much.

The Trump administration has apparently taken notice. White House officials are reportedly hearing calls to restrict access to Chinese models, but haven't taken formal action yet.

Regardless of what happens this time around, new reports suggest the US and China will meet later this year to discuss the growing threat of their respective nations' AI endeavors. In an AI arms race, an AI summit was inevitable.

The US model houses would certainly benefit from restrictions on Chinese models. Under the guise of national security, the restrictions would cut off Chinese AI developers from offering the strongest competition to US labs.

But less competition inevitably means enterprises and consumers get screwed.

The US hasn’t pursued large open weights models on the same scale as Chinese devs. Thinking Machines Lab’s newly announced Inkling model at just shy of a trillion parameters is about as good as it gets for American open-weights models. The next closest would be Nvidia's Nemotron 3 Ultra at 550 billion parameters.

Who knows whether the White House will actually fall for the ploy and give Amodei the knee-jerk response he presumably is looking for. But if the Trump administration doesn’t want US companies, particularly those serving government agencies, using Chinese models, the answer isn’t less competition. It’s more. ®