Iran, Oman move to finalize new Hormuz shipping corridor

An informed source says agreement with Oman does not mean the opening of the Strait of Hormuz

TEHRAN — Facing dwindling strategic resources after months of military confrontation with Iran, the United States has increasingly pinned its hopes on negotiations between Tehran and Muscat to secure the future of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategically important maritime corridors.

While Washington initially sought to address the issue through broader diplomatic arrangements following the 40-day conflict, the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum has left the Iran-Oman channel as the principal avenue for any future settlement governing the Strait.

The shift reflects a new geopolitical reality that has emerged following the conflict. Beyond the military costs of the war, the United States has reportedly seen significant depletion of both its missile stockpiles and strategic petroleum reserves, while the prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait has intensified pressure from global energy markets and America's regional partners to restore maritime commerce.

Against this backdrop, Washington has increasingly focused on supporting indirect diplomacy, allowing two neighboring states with direct geographical sovereignty over the Strait—Iran and Oman—to negotiate a new framework for navigation.

Economic shockwaves reinforce Strait's strategic importance

The urgency surrounding the negotiations has been reinforced by newly released international trade data.

According to analysis published by the United Nations and the International Trade Centre (ITC), the disruption of shipping through the Strait has produced one of the most severe shocks to global commodity markets in recent years.

Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from economies dependent on the route have fallen by 95 percent, while urea exports have dropped 83 percent.

Japan, which previously sourced more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports through the region, has experienced a 64 percent decline in imports despite efforts to diversify suppliers.

The figures suggest that alternative supply chains have failed to fully offset losses originating from the Persian Gulf, underscoring the global consequences of prolonged instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran-Oman talks reach critical stage

Iranian and Omani negotiators are now believed to be in the final stages of discussions over a memorandum of understanding that would establish new shipping arrangements for the waterway.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei has said the negotiations focus on ensuring safe maritime navigation while preserving the sovereign rights and security interests of both countries.

According to informed Iranian sources, the proposed agreement goes beyond simply defining new navigation lanes.

Tehran has reportedly insisted that once the new maritime corridor is formally incorporated into the memorandum, subsequent negotiations should also establish mechanisms governing maritime management, security coordination and navigational services.

Iranian officials view these issues as inseparable from the country's sovereign rights over one side of the strategically vital waterway.

Washington watches from the sidelines

Although the negotiations are formally being conducted between Iran and Oman, Western media reports indicate that the United States remains closely engaged in developments.

Reuters reported that the draft framework under discussion could allow Iran to oversee vessels entering the Persian Gulf through designated shipping lanes while negotiations continue over outbound traffic.

The Financial Times similarly reported that the White House has closely monitored progress through Omani mediation, with Washington increasingly viewing the Iran-Oman channel as its best opportunity to reduce tensions after the failure of previous diplomatic initiatives.

According to the newspaper, the Trump administration now faces a narrowing range of options after months of conflict failed to produce its broader strategic objectives. Analysts quoted by the publication argued that Washington is effectively seeking to restore commercial navigation through the Strait while adapting to a regional balance that has shifted in Iran's favor.

Meanwhile, The Daily Telegraph reported that one proposal under discussion could see European governments bear part of the financial burden associated with future maritime safety and navigational services linked to reopening commercial shipping, highlighting Europe's growing interest in stabilizing global energy supplies.

US pressure continues to complicate negotiations

Despite progress, Iranian officials maintain that outside interference remains the principal obstacle to concluding an agreement.

According to informed Iranian sources, repeated U.S. threats and continued military pressure have complicated negotiations and delayed the finalization of the memorandum.

Officials stress that Tehran will not conclude any agreement while negotiations are conducted under 'coercion or military intimidation.'

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), citing an informed source, also emphasized that the Iran-Oman negotiations concern only bilateral arrangements governing navigation through the Strait and should not be interpreted as an agreement to immediately reopen the waterway.

The source added that any future implementation would remain contingent upon broader security conditions, arguing that continued U.S. actions could prevent the Strait from returning to normal commercial operations regardless of progress in bilateral talks.

Iran has proposed expanding future negotiations with Oman to cover the management, security and maritime services of the Strait of Hormuz after the two sides finalize a new shipping corridor, a knowledgeable source told the Tehran Times.

According to the source, Tehran has insisted that once the new route is formally incorporated into the planned memorandum of understanding, subsequent negotiations should establish comprehensive arrangements governing the management, security and maritime services associated with the strategically important waterway.

The source said the negotiations began during the final days of the 40-day war and have now entered what appears to be their final stage.

Omani authorities are currently conducting consultations on the proposal, the source added, noting that despite opposition from extra-regional actors, the likelihood of including such provisions in the prospective agreement has increased, subject to further negotiations between the two sides.

Regional diplomacy intensifies

As negotiations approach a decisive stage, diplomatic engagement has accelerated across the region.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani discussed the Iran-Oman negotiations during a telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who reportedly outlined the latest developments regarding future shipping routes through the Strait.

Separately, the foreign ministers of Iraq and Egypt met in Amman to discuss regional developments, including maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and the importance of ensuring the uninterrupted flow of international navigation.

The growing diplomatic activity reflects increasing recognition that any agreement between Tehran and Muscat could have implications extending well beyond bilateral relations, influencing regional security architecture, international energy markets and global trade.

A new strategic reality

For Tehran, the negotiations represent more than a technical maritime arrangement.

Iranian officials describe the talks as an opportunity to establish a long-term framework that simultaneously guarantees navigational safety, recognizes Iran's sovereign rights and institutionalizes future cooperation with Oman over management of one of the world's most sensitive maritime corridors.

For Washington, however, the negotiations increasingly represent the remaining diplomatic path toward easing a crisis that has disrupted global energy markets and imposed mounting economic and strategic costs.

Whether the two neighboring states ultimately reach an agreement may determine not only the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz, but also the broader balance of power that has emerged in the aftermath of one of the Middle East's most consequential confrontations in recent years.