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The architect of a review into the early release scheme has warned prisons will run out of space in November just days after Andy Burnham announced a 'pause' on the policy.

Sir David Gauke, the ex-Tory justice secretary who headed the independent review into sentencing, said prisons in England and Wales were 'on course to run out of capacity in November' unless the early release scheme remained in place.

But on Thursday, the Prime Minister suspended the scheme amid outrage at PC Andrew Harper's killers being freed from jail.

The move threatens to plunge the prisons system into fresh chaos, with Andy Burnham insisting no prisoners will be released under the scheme until an 'urgent' review by his new Justice Secretary Alex Norris is complete.

Mr Gauke, who led a landmark review into the justice system last year, has previously recommended an 'earned progression model' where prisoners could be moved quicker to a 'post-custody' stage after serving one-third of their sentence if they behaved.

Posting on X, he wrote: 'The sentencing reforms were driven by necessity. Sentences increased, the release points increased, but capacity did not increase to reflect that.

'This resulted in a capacity crisis in 2024, with a short-term emergency release scheme implemented. We should want to avoid that.

'There is more space in our prisons today, but we should not aim to have prisons at capacity. We might have spaces – but in the wrong places or the wrong type of prison.

'Running at capacity makes it hard to deliver rehabilitation, and leaves the system vulnerable if there is a spike in criminality (for example riots), or if prison capacity is reduced suddenly.

'The current spare capacity won't last long. Without the early release scheme, we are on course to run out of capacity in November, requiring emergency measures.'

Sir David Gauke has warned prisons will run out of space in November just days after Andy Burnham announced a 'pause' on the policy

The Prime Minister suspended the scheme amid outrage at PC Andrew Harper's killers being freed from jail

PC Andrew Harper, pictured with his wife Lissie, was 28 when he sustained fatal injuries while responding to a quad bike theft in Sulhamstead, Berkshire, in August 2019

Sir David, the former justice secretary under Theresa May, was suspended from the Conservative Party by Boris Johnson in 2019 for opposing a no-deal Brexit.

After losing his seat, he was appointed by Labour to run an independent sentencing review into prison overcrowding by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood last year.

Despite his concerns, Mr Burnham is proceeding with a pause on the scheme for the time being.

On Thursday he said: 'Keeping the public safe will always be my top priority. I am working closely with the new Justice Secretary and have instructed my team to put a pause on the changes that were due to start in September.

'No prisoners will be let out under this policy until we have conducted an urgent review and done everything we can to minimise risk to the public. Where changes are needed, we will not hesitate to make them.'

Mr Norris, who has only been in charge at the Ministry of Justice since Monday, said around 700 prisoners who had been set for early release in September would now no longer be released as part of a first tranche.

Under the new Sentencing Act, some 6,000 criminals are due to be released under the early prison release scheme.

The Government has so far failed to say whether killers, rapists and paedophiles will be exempt from the scheme.

Asked if any prisoners would still be released under the scheme from September, the Justice Secretary told reporters: 'The PM has been very clear that the September 2 date is now on pause.

'I want to be clear for victims and survivors that that's the case. Prison governors, prison officers as well are doing a really important job in implementing these sorts of changes.

'We'll be giving them the most information we can so they can do this operationally.

'We're mindful of how difficult a job they've got. If they could give us a little bit of time just to make sure we get this right.'

He added: 'The PM and I have heard from victims and survivors, and from people across the country, about their concerns about the implementation of some very important elements of the Sentencing Act.

'We've taken the decision to pause it because we want to get any implementation right, to take those views of victims and survivors to be at the heart of it.'

Mr Burnham had previously paved the way for a U-turn when he promised to 'look at' the scheme on Wednesday, as he addressed anger at the possible early release of two of PC Harper's killers.

The MoJ had confirmed Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers – who were each handed 13 years in custody for manslaughter after a trial into PC Harper's death at the Old Bailey in 2020 – might be eligible to be released early.

PC Harper's mother Debbie Adlam said Mr Burnham's decision to pause the plan for the early release of prisoners is a 'good start' but 'not enough'.

She told ITV News: 'It's not enough. It's a good start, and it really is a good basis to begin working on some sensible alternatives and looking at options for going forward, because there's so many people this affects, it's not just us.

'It's incredibly personal to us, but it's not just us. And I think it really needs a good looking at, not just a quick meeting and 'that's it, we'll move on'.

'It needs to be looked at thoroughly and that's what I'm hoping for. We want to see some results from it.'

Lissie Harper, the widow of PC Harper, had previously said it was 'deplorable' that Cole and Bowers could have become eligible to be released from prison after serving half of their sentences, rather than two-thirds.

PC Harper was 28 when he sustained fatal injuries while responding to a quad bike theft in Sulhamstead, Berkshire, in August 2019.

He died after getting caught in a strap attached to the back of a car and dragged down a country road as three teenage suspects fled the scene of the burglary.

Cole and Bowers, who were passengers in the car, were both 17 years old at the time. The driver of the vehicle which caused PC Harper's death, Henry Long, received a 16-year sentence, and will not be eligible for the early release scheme.

Mrs Harper, who was married for just 28 days before PC Harper's death, on Wednesday piled pressure on Mr Burnham to rethink the policy as she said it is 'deplorable' that two of her late husband's killers are being considered for early release.

She added that politicians are 'making decisions from behind a desk that will have real and lasting consequences' for the families of victims.

PC Harper responded to the quad bike call just hours after he had been due to clock off and begin his honeymoon with wife Mrs Harper.

After her husband's death, Mrs Harper campaigned for legal changes to see harsher sentences for the manslaughter of emergency workers on duty. Harper's Law was among the new measures in the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act.

The move extends mandatory life sentences to anyone who commits the manslaughter of an emergency worker on duty including police, prison officers, firefighters and paramedics.

But it is not retrospective, meaning PC Harper's killers cannot have their sentences extended.

The Daily Mail has contacted the Ministry of Justice for comment.