On Tuesday week, August 11, Australians will tackle the five-yearly census, providing a demographic snapshot of the nation and guiding governments and others in all sorts of policy decisions.

One area that always attracts attention is the question of religion, a little controversial again this year as secularists want the question “what is your religion?” changed. That can’t happen because the question must be able to be compared with previous censuses, but the “no religion” response will move to the top of the page.

Either way, there has certainly been a steady decline in people identifying as religious. In the 2016 census more than 12 million people described themselves as Christian (52.1 per cent), but in the last census, in 2021, the number dropped to 11.1 million (43.9 per cent).

Of course these numbers need care. People often think that those who say they have no religion are therefore atheists, and of course many are. More still are agnostics, while others have left the institutional church but still have a faith. In the 2011 census, 6 million Australians said they had no religion, but only 59,000 of them identified as atheists. There were more Jedi knights!

Similarly, the number of Christians may be overstated, as for some it may be merely a cultural identity, and not a living faith.

The National Church Life Survey later this year – covering more than 20 denominations – will provide a more detailed picture of what is happening inside the churches. It too will probably show declining numbers, but the most recent survey showed 21 per cent of Australians attend church at least once a month (rising to 32 per cent of 18 to 35-year-olds).

Even many non-believers regret the loss of the compass religion provided for society. (Voltaire, an atheist, wanted his servants to be Christian.) Lack of the sense of transcendence and meaning central to religious faith has helped bring an avalanche of loneliness, depression, anxiety and purposelessness.

There are other factors, of course, such as the rise of social media but – as Christianity teaches – connection is essential for human flourishing. Church pews are deeply egalitarian – matched perhaps only by football – a rare place where a judge might rub shoulders with an aged care worker, a CEO with a supermarket checkout worker.

As Christians slip into the minority, they have to persuade in the public square like any other group, rather than claiming special authority, which will sharpen their skills and their own convictions as they have to think more carefully and present more gently.

Perhaps this has helped ensure the movement is not all in one direction. In the last census, 784,000 Australians who ticked the no religion box in 2016 identified as Christian in 2021.

Barney Zwartz is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Public Christianity.