BN, PN to begin talks soon on electoral pact for Melaka polls, following Negeri Sembilan victory

Analysts tell CNA that an early election will be in the interest of the two coalitions, following their recent success in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls.

MELAKA: Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are expected to begin talks on an electoral pact for the upcoming Melaka state election, which must be held by February next year, said two of their leaders after their landslide victory in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls.

The two coalitions secured a commanding win last Saturday, claiming 25 of the 36 seats to form a supermajority in Negeri Sembilan’s state assembly. The victory built on last month’s Johor state election in which BN swept 48 out of 56 seats.

Melaka Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh said on Sunday (Aug 2) that Melaka BN remained open to working with other political parties under a “BN Plus formula” ahead of the next state election.

“Anyone is welcome to come and negotiate but negotiations do not necessarily end with an agreement because everything depends on each party’s respective strength,” he told reporters, as quoted by The Star.

“We are not bound by any arrangement that has yet to be formally established as a final coalition but I am open to everyone who wishes to negotiate with me.”

Ab Rauf is from the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the lynchpin party of BN which currently controls the Melaka state assembly with a comfortable majority.

In June, Ab Rauf had said the Melaka legislative assembly was likely to be dissolved within the next three months, paving the way for a state election that could be held by September.

Melaka opposition leader Mohd Yadzil Yaakub of PN said later on Monday that Ab Rauf and PN’s Parti Wawasan Negara president Hamzah Zainudin were likely to meet, although he declined to disclose how many seats his coalition expected to contest.

“I can’t reveal the number of state seats expected to be contested by our side, but I am optimistic that Barisan and Perikatan will reach an electoral understanding,” he told The Star on Monday.

Yadzil is part of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), which remains part of PN but contested in the Negeri Sembilan state election on its own amid a rift within the coalition.

PN is currently the opposition in the Melaka state government.

Yadzil said the Negeri Sembilan state election results showed that voters had supported cooperation between BN and PN and expressed hope that the partnership would continue into the Melaka state election and eventually the 16th General Election.

"(The Negeri Sembilan state election) proved that when leaders are prepared to put aside political ego, show statesmanship and place the interests of the people, the voters will respond with confidence and support," he said, as quoted by The Star.

The results in Negeri Sembilan marked a dramatic reversal in the state’s political landscape and the latest setback for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, driven by a powerful Malay-Muslim unity narrative put forth by BN and PN.

Speaking to the media last Saturday, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also Malaysia’s deputy prime minister, said that both coalitions will now turn their attention to the impending Melaka state election.

“This mandate and decision (in Negeri Sembilan) also (allows) us to continue the blue and dark blue wave that begun in the state of Johor and, God willing, it will spread to Melaka state,” said Zahid at his press conference, referring to the party colours of BN and PN, respectively.

EARLY ELECTION IN BN’S INTEREST: ANALYSTS

Analysts said that an early Melaka election would likely be in the interest of BN and PN, especially its component party Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), to build on the momentum from victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

“If you won in Johor, now Seremban (in Negeri Sembilan) followed by Melaka, then there is a momentum that says UMNO is making a big comeback together with PAS, which can threaten Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim,” political analyst James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, told CNA.

Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya (UM) said back-to-back victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan have boosted the confidence of BN’s party machinery and “reinforced the perception that cooperation between the two coalitions can produce effective vote transfers”.

Vote transfers refer to BN supporters voting for PN and vice versa.

While top leaders of coalitions in Anwar’s government, including from BN, have pledged support for it to continue until the end of its term, analysts have said that the results in Johor and Negeri Sembilan could put pressure on the prime minister to call a snap general election.

On the timing of the Melaka state polls, Chin said that it would depend on the chief minister’s political calculations on whether an early election would strengthen BN’s mandate in the state and "increase its number of seats”.

In Awang Azman’s view, the state election would likely be held in the final quarter of the year, possibly sometime in October before the federal budget is tabled, as he expects the state assembly to be dissolved next month.

“This would give BN and PN around two to three months to conclude seat negotiations, gauge grassroots acceptance and finalise candidates based on each party's actual strengths,” he told CNA.

Awang Azman said the timing would depend on the progress of BN-PN seat negotiations, the readiness of the party machinery, willingness of UMNO divisions to accept seat concessions as well as BN’s relationship with PH at the federal level.

“BN and PN stand to benefit from holding the election earlier, but their chances of maximising victory will depend on reaching a solid seat-sharing agreement and securing genuine grassroots support,” he said.

“Political momentum is important, but effective partnership management (between BN and PN) will be even more decisive.”

Melaka last held a state election in November 2021 following a political crisis in which four state assemblymen withdrew their support for the government led by then-chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali, which resulted in the state government losing its majority.

BN had secured a landslide victory in the 2021 state election, winning 21 of 28 seats to form the state government with a two-thirds majority. Pakatan Harapan won five seats while PN secured two.

Last month, four Democratic Action Party (DAP) assemblymen, which is part of the PH coalition, withdrew from the Melaka state government to protest constitutional amendments allowing for the appointment of nominated assemblymen.

The four remain elected representatives but resigned from their government posts and now sit on the opposition bench.

DAP, together with PH, joined the Melaka state government in 2023 when Ab Rauf became chief minister and reshuffled the executive council to reflect the PH-BN partnership at the federal level following the 2022 general election, local media reported.