BACK TO PLAN A

The Trump administration knows that the threat from Iranian missiles and drones will become more intense in the coming years. Tehran has already demonstrated that it can hit a variety of targets - including Dubai airport, Qatar’s LNG facilities and US military bases in the region (two US service members were killed in Jordan on Friday).

But US strategists are worried that the rapid development of drone and missile technology - combined with extensive help from Russia and China - make it very likely that in a few years’ time Iran will possess weapons that are more accurate and have a longer range.

The kind of targets that might then become vulnerable to attack by the Iranian regime include Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor and the US base in Diego Garcia, which is critical to American power projection in the Indo-Pacific. The Iranians fired missiles near both targets earlier in this conflict without success. But that could change.

So how can the US respond to this bleak prospect? The growing realisation that America may never be able to constrain Tehran by negotiation means that the idea of regime change in Iran is coming back on to the agenda in Washington.

Toppling the Islamic republic was the original goal of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when they began the war with Iran on Feb 28. But their hopes that military action might lead to a successful popular uprising against the Iranian leadership were soon dashed.

For a few months, the idea of regime change was ditched as the US pursued an effort to end the conflict through diplomacy. But now that diplomacy seems to have failed, elements of the Trump administration are once again flirting with Plan A - which is to topple the Iranian regime.